生态环境学报
生態環境學報
생태배경학보
ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT
2014年
1期
95-100
,共6页
极端降水%极端降水指数%时空变化%黄河流域
極耑降水%極耑降水指數%時空變化%黃河流域
겁단강수%겁단강수지수%시공변화%황하류역
extreme precipitation event%extreme precipitation indices%Spatio-temporal characteristics%Yellow River basin
利用黄河流域76个气象台站近53 a（1960-2012）的逐日降水资料，采用国际上通用的极端降水事件指数，应用一元线性回归法、移动平均法和径向基函数空间插值法，研究了黄河流域极端降水指数时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）时间上，黄河流域年平均降水量在过去53 a下降趋势较为显著，降水倾向率为-7.2 mm/10a；极端降水量变化趋势表现较为稳定，极端降水倾向率为-0.64 mm/10a，呈不断降低趋势；极端降水强度倾向率为-0.078 mm/10a，呈不断下降趋势；极端降水比率总体表现为微弱增长趋势，倾向率为0.49 mm/10a。（2）空间上，降水量空间分布具有明显的差异性，由北至南呈阶梯式逐渐增多趋势，其中降水量最少的地区是以银川为代表的周边区域，最多的地区为黄河流域南部区域；极端降水量从北至南也具有逐渐增多态势，与降水量具有相似的空间分布特点，且极端降水量越多的地区降水总量也相对较多；极端降水强度表现出由流域西部向东部逐渐增多的趋势，西部最低值为不到20 mm/d，逐渐向东过渡到最大值为76 mm/d；极端降水比率的分布呈由北向南逐渐递减的特点，并且出现了以银川为中心的极大值和以西安为中心的极小值分布格局。
利用黃河流域76箇氣象檯站近53 a（1960-2012）的逐日降水資料，採用國際上通用的極耑降水事件指數，應用一元線性迴歸法、移動平均法和徑嚮基函數空間插值法，研究瞭黃河流域極耑降水指數時空變化特徵。結果錶明：（1）時間上，黃河流域年平均降水量在過去53 a下降趨勢較為顯著，降水傾嚮率為-7.2 mm/10a；極耑降水量變化趨勢錶現較為穩定，極耑降水傾嚮率為-0.64 mm/10a，呈不斷降低趨勢；極耑降水彊度傾嚮率為-0.078 mm/10a，呈不斷下降趨勢；極耑降水比率總體錶現為微弱增長趨勢，傾嚮率為0.49 mm/10a。（2）空間上，降水量空間分佈具有明顯的差異性，由北至南呈階梯式逐漸增多趨勢，其中降水量最少的地區是以銀川為代錶的週邊區域，最多的地區為黃河流域南部區域；極耑降水量從北至南也具有逐漸增多態勢，與降水量具有相似的空間分佈特點，且極耑降水量越多的地區降水總量也相對較多；極耑降水彊度錶現齣由流域西部嚮東部逐漸增多的趨勢，西部最低值為不到20 mm/d，逐漸嚮東過渡到最大值為76 mm/d；極耑降水比率的分佈呈由北嚮南逐漸遞減的特點，併且齣現瞭以銀川為中心的極大值和以西安為中心的極小值分佈格跼。
이용황하류역76개기상태참근53 a（1960-2012）적축일강수자료，채용국제상통용적겁단강수사건지수，응용일원선성회귀법、이동평균법화경향기함수공간삽치법，연구료황하류역겁단강수지수시공변화특정。결과표명：（1）시간상，황하류역년평균강수량재과거53 a하강추세교위현저，강수경향솔위-7.2 mm/10a；겁단강수량변화추세표현교위은정，겁단강수경향솔위-0.64 mm/10a，정불단강저추세；겁단강수강도경향솔위-0.078 mm/10a，정불단하강추세；겁단강수비솔총체표현위미약증장추세，경향솔위0.49 mm/10a。（2）공간상，강수량공간분포구유명현적차이성，유북지남정계제식축점증다추세，기중강수량최소적지구시이은천위대표적주변구역，최다적지구위황하류역남부구역；겁단강수량종북지남야구유축점증다태세，여강수량구유상사적공간분포특점，차겁단강수량월다적지구강수총량야상대교다；겁단강수강도표현출유류역서부향동부축점증다적추세，서부최저치위불도20 mm/d，축점향동과도도최대치위76 mm/d；겁단강수비솔적분포정유북향남축점체감적특점，병차출현료이은천위중심적겁대치화이서안위중심적겁소치분포격국。
Based on daily precipitation data of 76 meteorological stations in Yellow River basin from 1960 to 2012,four precipitation indices were calculated, the inter-annual change trends were studied by methods of regression analysis and five years moving average, and spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation indices were analyzed by radial base interpolation. The results show:(1) In time, In the period of 1960~2012, average annual rainfall were significant descend with the rate of-7.2/10a, extreme precipitation was the same descend trend with the rate of-0.64/10a as intensity of extreme precipitation with the rate of-0.07827/10a, extreme precipitation concentration ratio has increased weakly by the rate of 0.49/10a. (2) In space, the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices exhibited notable spatial disparity. Rainfall increased significantly from north to south, and the area with the least rainfall is located in the peripheral region of Yinchuan, the most rainfall in the southern Yellow River Basin. Extreme precipitation showed an increasing trend and the same spatial distribution characteristics as rainfall, and the more extreme precipitation, the more rainfall. Intensity of extreme precipitation had an increasing trend from west to east, and the minimum value of less than 20mm/d in west, maximum value of more than 76mm/d in the east. Extreme precipitation concentration ratio has a decreasing trend from north to south with a maximum value centering on Yinchuan, a minimum value centering on Xi’an city.
