CAJ | 학술논문

利用华南地区46个地面气象站1960-2012年逐日降水数据，分析该地区各季节持续干期日数的时空分布特征。结果表明：1）近53年来，华南地区春季和夏季的持续干期日数呈波动下降趋势，下降速率分别为0.042和0.108 d·(10 a)-1；秋季和冬季的持续干期日数呈波动上升趋势，上升速率分别为1.911和0.118 d·(10 a)-1。广东省春季和夏季持续干期日数呈下降趋势，下降速率分别为0.171和0.243 d·(10 a)-1；秋季和冬季持续干期日数呈增加趋势，增加速率分别为1.737和0.32 d·(10 a)-1。广西省春、夏和秋季持续干期日数呈增加趋势，增加速率分别为0.109、0.046和2.117 d·(10 a)-1；冬季为减小趋势，减少速率为0.106 d·(10 a)-1。2）华南地区持续干期日数在春季呈从北向南逐渐增多的趋势，夏季呈自西南向东北逐渐增加的趋势，秋季呈自西向东逐渐增加的趋势，冬季呈从北向南逐渐增多的趋势。冬季的持续干期日数是4个季节中最长的，大致在20~44 d。3）华南地区春季持续干期日数变化倾向率在-1.20~1.00 d·(10 a)-1之间，增加趋势最明显的区域是广西省的南部地区，减少趋势最明显的区域是广东省的沿海地区；夏季在-1.00~0.60 d·(10 a)-1之间，呈增加趋势的区域主要位于广西省的中部和南部，呈减少趋势的区域位于广东省大部分地区和广西省的东部；秋季在0~3.50 d·(10 a)-1之间，整体呈现增加趋势，变化倾向率较大的区域主要位于广西省的中部和广东省的东北部沿海地区；冬季在-1.50~2.00 d·(10 a)-1之间，呈增加趋势的区域主要集中在广东省的中南部和东部地区，以及广西的东部边缘，呈减少趋势的区域主要集中在广东省的北部以及广西的中部和西北部地区。持续干期日数增加趋势最明显的季节是秋季。4）持续干期日数与降水量表现出负相关性，与气温和无降水日数表现为正相关性。降水量和无降水日数的变化对持续干期日数的变化起着重要的作用，而温度对持续干期日数的影响比较小。利用華南地區46箇地麵氣象站1960-2012年逐日降水數據，分析該地區各季節持續榦期日數的時空分佈特徵。結果錶明：1）近53年來，華南地區春季和夏季的持續榦期日數呈波動下降趨勢，下降速率分彆為0.042和0.108 d·(10 a)-1；鞦季和鼕季的持續榦期日數呈波動上升趨勢，上升速率分彆為1.911和0.118 d·(10 a)-1。廣東省春季和夏季持續榦期日數呈下降趨勢，下降速率分彆為0.171和0.243 d·(10 a)-1；鞦季和鼕季持續榦期日數呈增加趨勢，增加速率分彆為1.737和0.32 d·(10 a)-1。廣西省春、夏和鞦季持續榦期日數呈增加趨勢，增加速率分彆為0.109、0.046和2.117 d·(10 a)-1；鼕季為減小趨勢，減少速率為0.106 d·(10 a)-1。2）華南地區持續榦期日數在春季呈從北嚮南逐漸增多的趨勢，夏季呈自西南嚮東北逐漸增加的趨勢，鞦季呈自西嚮東逐漸增加的趨勢，鼕季呈從北嚮南逐漸增多的趨勢。鼕季的持續榦期日數是4箇季節中最長的，大緻在20~44 d。3）華南地區春季持續榦期日數變化傾嚮率在-1.20~1.00 d·(10 a)-1之間，增加趨勢最明顯的區域是廣西省的南部地區，減少趨勢最明顯的區域是廣東省的沿海地區；夏季在-1.00~0.60 d·(10 a)-1之間，呈增加趨勢的區域主要位于廣西省的中部和南部，呈減少趨勢的區域位于廣東省大部分地區和廣西省的東部；鞦季在0~3.50 d·(10 a)-1之間，整體呈現增加趨勢，變化傾嚮率較大的區域主要位于廣西省的中部和廣東省的東北部沿海地區；鼕季在-1.50~2.00 d·(10 a)-1之間，呈增加趨勢的區域主要集中在廣東省的中南部和東部地區，以及廣西的東部邊緣，呈減少趨勢的區域主要集中在廣東省的北部以及廣西的中部和西北部地區。持續榦期日數增加趨勢最明顯的季節是鞦季。4）持續榦期日數與降水量錶現齣負相關性，與氣溫和無降水日數錶現為正相關性。降水量和無降水日數的變化對持續榦期日數的變化起著重要的作用，而溫度對持續榦期日數的影響比較小。
이용화남지구46개지면기상참1960-2012년축일강수수거，분석해지구각계절지속간기일수적시공분포특정。결과표명：1）근53년래，화남지구춘계화하계적지속간기일수정파동하강추세，하강속솔분별위0.042화0.108 d·(10 a)-1；추계화동계적지속간기일수정파동상승추세，상승속솔분별위1.911화0.118 d·(10 a)-1。광동성춘계화하계지속간기일수정하강추세，하강속솔분별위0.171화0.243 d·(10 a)-1；추계화동계지속간기일수정증가추세，증가속솔분별위1.737화0.32 d·(10 a)-1。광서성춘、하화추계지속간기일수정증가추세，증가속솔분별위0.109、0.046화2.117 d·(10 a)-1；동계위감소추세，감소속솔위0.106 d·(10 a)-1。2）화남지구지속간기일수재춘계정종북향남축점증다적추세，하계정자서남향동북축점증가적추세，추계정자서향동축점증가적추세，동계정종북향남축점증다적추세。동계적지속간기일수시4개계절중최장적，대치재20~44 d。3）화남지구춘계지속간기일수변화경향솔재-1.20~1.00 d·(10 a)-1지간，증가추세최명현적구역시광서성적남부지구，감소추세최명현적구역시광동성적연해지구；하계재-1.00~0.60 d·(10 a)-1지간，정증가추세적구역주요위우광서성적중부화남부，정감소추세적구역위우광동성대부분지구화광서성적동부；추계재0~3.50 d·(10 a)-1지간，정체정현증가추세，변화경향솔교대적구역주요위우광서성적중부화광동성적동북부연해지구；동계재-1.50~2.00 d·(10 a)-1지간，정증가추세적구역주요집중재광동성적중남부화동부지구，이급엄서적동부변연，정감소추세적구역주요집중재광동성적북부이급엄서적중부화서북부지구。지속간기일수증가추세최명현적계절시추계。4）지속간기일수여강수량표현출부상관성，여기온화무강수일수표현위정상관성。강수량화무강수일수적변화대지속간기일수적변화기착중요적작용，이온도대지속간기일수적영향비교소。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 46 meteorological stations in South China from 1960 to 2012, the temporal and spatial variations of consecutive dry days in each season were analyzed. The result indicates that: 1) Consecutive dry days have fluctuating downward trends in spring and summer in South China, and the decreasing rates are 0.042 and 0.108 d·(10 a)-1, respectively. Consecutive dry days have fluctuating rising trends in autumn and winter in South China, and the rising rates are 1.911 and 0.118 d·(10 a)-1, respectively. Consecutive dry days have fluctuating downward trends in spring and summer in Guangdong Province, and the decreasing rates are 0.171 and 0.243 d·(10 a)-1, respectively. Consecutive dry days have fluctuating rising trends in autumn and winter in Guangdong Province, and the rising rates are 1.737 and 0.32 d·(10 a)-1, respectively. Consecutive dry days have fluctuating downward trends in spring, summer and autumn in Guangxi Province, and the rising rates are 0.109, 0.046 and 2.117 d·(10 a)-1 respectively. Consecutive dry days have fluctuating downward trends in winter in Guangxi Province, and the decreasing rate is 0.106 d·(10a)-1. 2) Consecutive dry days are increasing from north to south in spring, from southwest to northeast in summer, from west to east in autumn and from north to south in winter in South China. Consecutive dry days in winter range between 20 to 44 days, which is the longest in four seasons. 3) Change rate of consecutive dry days range between-1.20 to 1.00 d·(10 a)-1 in spring:the increment is most obvious in the south of Guangxi and the decrement is most obvious in the coastal area of Guangdong;Change rate of consecutive dry days range between-1.00 to 0.60 d·(10 a)-1 in summer, which showed an increasing trendin southern and central Guangxi and a decreasing trend in most areas of the Guangdong Province and eastern Guangxi; Change rates of consecutive dry days range between 0 to 3.50 d·(10 a)-1 in autumn, which showed an overall increasing tendency, and the increment is most obvious in the middle of Guangxi and the northeast coast of Guangdong;Change rates of consecutive dry days range between-1.50 to 2.00 d·(10 a)-1 in winter;the increment is most obvious in the mid-south and east of Guangdong and in the east margin of Guangxi, the decrement is most obvious in the north of Guangdong and in the middle and northwest of Guangxi. The increasing tendency of consecutive dry days is most obvious in autumn. 4) The consecutive dry days are a negatively correlated with the precipitation, and positively correlated with the temperature and the non-precipitation days. The changes of the precipitation and non-precipitation days play an important role in the changing of consecutive dry days, and temperature only have a small influence on the consecutive dry days.