CAJ | 학술논문

针对2005年7月12日发生在山东省中西部地区的一次飑线天气过程，采用集合方根滤波方法开展基于 WRF模式的多普勒雷达资料的同化应用试验，考察了此同化系统对实际雷达资料的同化效果。主要结论如下：（1）集合方根滤波同化系统能有效同化实际雷达资料，雷达资料的加入增加了模式的中小尺度信息，使分析场得到了显著改善，有效缩短了模式起转时间，改进了对地面降水的预报。（2）利用三次同化分析后的集合平均分析场进行的确定性预报表明，与控制试验相比，同化后分析场能更准确地预报飑线系统的微物理量场，预报的流场结构符合风暴的动力特征，动力场和热力场的分布与配置也基本合理。（3）集合平均分析场对飑线系统传播方向的预报与实况一致，但预报的系统传播速度较实况快，由于对流系统的非线性发展迅速，对系统的预报时效为5-6h。
침대2005년7월12일발생재산동성중서부지구적일차박선천기과정，채용집합방근려파방법개전기우 WRF모식적다보륵뢰체자료적동화응용시험，고찰료차동화계통대실제뢰체자료적동화효과。주요결론여하：（1）집합방근려파동화계통능유효동화실제뢰체자료，뢰체자료적가입증가료모식적중소척도신식，사분석장득도료현저개선，유효축단료모식기전시간，개진료대지면강수적예보。（2）이용삼차동화분석후적집합평균분석장진행적학정성예보표명，여공제시험상비，동화후분석장능경준학지예보박선계통적미물리량장，예보적류장결구부합풍폭적동력특정，동력장화열력장적분포여배치야기본합리。（3）집합평균분석장대박선계통전파방향적예보여실황일치，단예보적계통전파속도교실황쾌，유우대류계통적비선성발전신속，대계통적예보시효위5-6h。
The effectiveness of using an Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF)to assimilate real Doppler radar observations is investigated by applying the technique to a case of squall line occurred on 12 July 2005 in the midwestern part of Shandong Province as done by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)model.The experimental results show that,(1)the EnSRF system has the ability to effectively assimilate Doppler radar data:since the information at convective scale is added into the nu-merical model through radar data assimilation the analyzed field is improved noticeably,the model spin-up time is shortened, and the surface precipitation forecast is improved correspondingly;(2)compared with the forecast of control run,the forecast initiated from the EnSRF analysis can give a more accurate prediction of the microphysical field,and the predicted wind field and thermal field are reasonable and they are in accordance with the characteristic of convective storm;(3 )the propagation di-rection of the squall line forecasted by the ensemble mean analysis is consistent with observations,but the propagation speed is faster than observed speed,because of the nonlinear development of the convective storm,the period of validity of forecast is a-bout 5 to 6 hours.