CAJ | 학술논문

针对参与耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的17个海-气耦合模式对20世纪气候的模拟结果，从热带太平洋海表温度和大气海平面气压变化的综合分析角度较详细评估了模式对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）现象的模拟能力。结果表明，这些模式基本上能模拟出ENSO现象的一些主要特征，包括热带太平洋海温的空间分布及其时空演变特征、与海平面气压变化的关联、ENSO周期变化及锁相特征等，但不同模式的模拟结果仍然差异较大。（1）从模拟的热带太平洋年平均海温的偏差来看，多模式集合平均值与观测的均方根误差小于1．0℃，但单个模式的误差相对要大一些。误差较小的为1．2-1．3℃，多数模式在1．6℃以下，但也有个别模式的误差超过2．0℃。（2）从经验正交函数分解结果来看，热带太平洋实测月平均海表温度距平和海平面气压距平的年际尺度变化第1模态主要表现为ENSO变化特征，第2模态反映的是海温的长期变化趋势。只有少数几个CMIP5模式能够再现这种特征，多数模式所模拟的海温距平／海平面气压距平时空变化的第1、第2特征向量分布顺序与观测分析正好相反，ENSO变成了第2模态，趋势成了最主要的模态。尽管如此，所有模式都能模拟出南方涛动变化与热带太平洋海温距平时空变化的密切关联，无论是作为第1还是第2特征模态，所有模式模拟的南方涛动与热带太平洋海温距平时空变化都有密切相关。（3）谱分析结果表明，ENSO现象具有2-7年的周期，其中，4年的周期最明显。大多数模式模拟的ENSO周期在此范围内，但有些模式的主要周期偏短，为2年左右。个别模式的ENSO主要周期为11年，已超出2-7年的范围。（4）多数模式模拟的厄尔尼诺及拉尼娜的峰值出现在冬季（11-2月），与观测基本吻合。另有少数模式模拟的峰值出现在9-10月，比观测略提前。只有个别模式模拟的峰值出现在夏季，与观测相差太大。針對參與耦閤模式比較計劃（CMIP5）的17箇海-氣耦閤模式對20世紀氣候的模擬結果，從熱帶太平洋海錶溫度和大氣海平麵氣壓變化的綜閤分析角度較詳細評估瞭模式對阨爾尼諾-南方濤動（ENSO）現象的模擬能力。結果錶明，這些模式基本上能模擬齣ENSO現象的一些主要特徵，包括熱帶太平洋海溫的空間分佈及其時空縯變特徵、與海平麵氣壓變化的關聯、ENSO週期變化及鎖相特徵等，但不同模式的模擬結果仍然差異較大。（1）從模擬的熱帶太平洋年平均海溫的偏差來看，多模式集閤平均值與觀測的均方根誤差小于1．0℃，但單箇模式的誤差相對要大一些。誤差較小的為1．2-1．3℃，多數模式在1．6℃以下，但也有箇彆模式的誤差超過2．0℃。（2）從經驗正交函數分解結果來看，熱帶太平洋實測月平均海錶溫度距平和海平麵氣壓距平的年際呎度變化第1模態主要錶現為ENSO變化特徵，第2模態反映的是海溫的長期變化趨勢。隻有少數幾箇CMIP5模式能夠再現這種特徵，多數模式所模擬的海溫距平／海平麵氣壓距平時空變化的第1、第2特徵嚮量分佈順序與觀測分析正好相反，ENSO變成瞭第2模態，趨勢成瞭最主要的模態。儘管如此，所有模式都能模擬齣南方濤動變化與熱帶太平洋海溫距平時空變化的密切關聯，無論是作為第1還是第2特徵模態，所有模式模擬的南方濤動與熱帶太平洋海溫距平時空變化都有密切相關。（3）譜分析結果錶明，ENSO現象具有2-7年的週期，其中，4年的週期最明顯。大多數模式模擬的ENSO週期在此範圍內，但有些模式的主要週期偏短，為2年左右。箇彆模式的ENSO主要週期為11年，已超齣2-7年的範圍。（4）多數模式模擬的阨爾尼諾及拉尼娜的峰值齣現在鼕季（11-2月），與觀測基本吻閤。另有少數模式模擬的峰值齣現在9-10月，比觀測略提前。隻有箇彆模式模擬的峰值齣現在夏季，與觀測相差太大。
침대삼여우합모식비교계화（CMIP5）적17개해-기우합모식대20세기기후적모의결과，종열대태평양해표온도화대기해평면기압변화적종합분석각도교상세평고료모식대액이니낙-남방도동（ENSO）현상적모의능력。결과표명，저사모식기본상능모의출ENSO현상적일사주요특정，포괄열대태평양해온적공간분포급기시공연변특정、여해평면기압변화적관련、ENSO주기변화급쇄상특정등，단불동모식적모의결과잉연차이교대。（1）종모의적열대태평양년평균해온적편차래간，다모식집합평균치여관측적균방근오차소우1．0℃，단단개모식적오차상대요대일사。오차교소적위1．2-1．3℃，다수모식재1．6℃이하，단야유개별모식적오차초과2．0℃。（2）종경험정교함수분해결과래간，열대태평양실측월평균해표온도거평화해평면기압거평적년제척도변화제1모태주요표현위ENSO변화특정，제2모태반영적시해온적장기변화추세。지유소수궤개CMIP5모식능구재현저충특정，다수모식소모의적해온거평／해평면기압거평시공변화적제1、제2특정향량분포순서여관측분석정호상반，ENSO변성료제2모태，추세성료최주요적모태。진관여차，소유모식도능모의출남방도동변화여열대태평양해온거평시공변화적밀절관련，무론시작위제1환시제2특정모태，소유모식모의적남방도동여열대태평양해온거평시공변화도유밀절상관。（3）보분석결과표명，ENSO현상구유2-7년적주기，기중，4년적주기최명현。대다수모식모의적ENSO주기재차범위내，단유사모식적주요주기편단，위2년좌우。개별모식적ENSO주요주기위11년，이초출2-7년적범위。（4）다수모식모의적액이니낙급랍니나적봉치출현재동계（11-2월），여관측기본문합。령유소수모식모의적봉치출현재9-10월，비관측략제전。지유개별모식모의적봉치출현재하계，여관측상차태대。
The ability of the 17 CMIP5 models in simulating the ENSO phenomenon is examined by using the outputs of these models from the historical experiments of the 20th century.In general,the models can simulate some major characteristics of the ENSO phenomena,such as the mean sea surface temperature (SST)in the tropical Pacific;the temporal and spatial evolu-tion of the SST anomalies;the interactive relation between oceans and the atmosphere;the periodicity of the ENSO;the phase locking feature of the ENSO and so on.There is large difference in the ability of simulating the ENSO between various models. (1)The simulated SST still has some errors in various degrees.This error is small for the multiple model ensemble with the root mean square error (RMSE)between the simulated and observed SST being below 1 .0°C and otherwise for each single model in which the RMSE is larger than this.Some good models can have error of 1.2-1.3℃,majority of the models has er-rors below 1.6℃,and there are still few models which have RMSE exceeding 2.0℃.(2)According to the Empirical Othorgnal Function (EOF)analyses,the temporal and spatial variation of the simulated SST anomalies and Sea Level Pressure (SLP)a-nomalies for a few of the models is close to the observation,its first mode is ENSO mode and the corresponding time coefficient represents the ENSO evolution.Its second mode represents the increasing trend of the SST anomaly during the last period of more than 50 years.For most of the models the sequence of the temporal and spatial variation mode of the simulated SST/SLP anomaly is opposite to that of the observation.The increasing trend becomes the first mode with the major variance contribu-tion,while the ENSO becomes the second mode.This means that the mechanism which produces the temperature increase from the CO2 induced greenhouse effect is too strong in these models,while the ENSO oscillation mechanism is rather weak.It is showed that no matter it is the first mode or second mode,the corresponding time coefficient of the southern oscillation has the good correlation with the SST anomaly.This means the CMIP5 models can well represent the close relationship between the El Ni?o-La Ni?a and the southern oscillation.(3)The spectral analysis shows that the ENSO phenomenon has 2-7 year quasi-periodicity and the 4 year periodicity is the most obvious.In most of the CMIP5 models the ENSO has the periods of 2-7 years,this is consistent to the observation.But some models have ENSO period of 2 year or so,and few has too long period of 11 years.And,(4)in the simulations of most of models the peak phase of the El Ni?o/La Ni?a appears in later fall through winter (November-February),which is consistent to observation.There are also few models whose simulated ENSO peak ap-pears in September-October or even in summer and this is not consistent with observation.