CAJ | 학술논문

为了应对气候变化对农业生产所产生的影响,找出其变化规律,更好的指导当地农业生产,对诸气候变化进行统计分析,揭示诸城市气候变化特征,分析对农业生产的影响,合理指导当地农业生产;选用诸城市1961—2010年的气温与降水资料,采用线性倾向估计方法分析其年、季变化特征。结果表明：近50年诸城市年平均气温总体呈显著上升趋势（0.383℃/10年）,20世纪90年代后升温明显。各季平均气温亦呈现上升趋势,冬季气温增幅最大。年、夏季、秋季降水量总体呈下降趋势,春季和冬季降水量呈上升趋势。气候变暖对农业生产利大于弊。极端降水事件有所增加,干旱和洪涝可能趋于增加,加剧了农业灾害的发生;随着气温变暖,极端降水事件的增加,对农业生产影响较大,加强预报,有效防御气象灾害,减少经济损失。
위료응대기후변화대농업생산소산생적영향,조출기변화규률,경호적지도당지농업생산,대제기후변화진행통계분석,게시제성시기후변화특정,분석대농업생산적영향,합리지도당지농업생산;선용제성시1961—2010년적기온여강수자료,채용선성경향고계방법분석기년、계변화특정。결과표명：근50년제성시년평균기온총체정현저상승추세（0.383℃/10년）,20세기90년대후승온명현。각계평균기온역정현상승추세,동계기온증폭최대。년、하계、추계강수량총체정하강추세,춘계화동계강수량정상승추세。기후변난대농업생산리대우폐。겁단강수사건유소증가,간한화홍로가능추우증가,가극료농업재해적발생;수착기온변난,겁단강수사건적증가,대농업생산영향교대,가강예보,유효방어기상재해,감소경제손실。
In order to deal with the impact of climate change on agricultural production, find out its change rule and direct local agricultural production better, we do statistical analysis of the climate change in Zhucheng, reveal the characteristics of climatic variation, analyze its impact on agricultural production, properly direct local agricultural production. We choose the temperature and precipitation data between 1961 and 2010 in Zhucheng and analyze its yearly and seasonly change characteristics using the linear tendency estimate method. The result shows that the average temperature of Zhucheng has an overall rise in the nearly 50 years past （0.383℃/10 years） and that it has an obvious rise in the late 1990s. The temperature of each season also has a rising trend. The winter has the largest increase in temperature. The rainfall of the year, the summer and the autumn is decreasing overall and that of the spring and the winter is increasing. Climate warming bring more advantages to agricultural production than disadvantages. Extreme events of rainfall happen a little more often. There is more possibility of droughts and floods, which will bring more disasters to agriculture. With the climate warming, the increasing events of extreme rainfall, and greater impact on agricultural production, we will strengthen the forecast to make effective prevention of meteorological disasters, and reduce economic loss.