CAJ | 학술논문

从系统分析的视角出发,对流域系统动力学建模过程、方法进行总结。综述了国内外系统动力学模型（简称SD模型）在社会经济发展与流域水资源承载力、流域水环境承载和流域水生态承载力耦合关系的研究。从简单的零维模型发展到复杂的社会经济综合模型和OO-SD模型（即Objective-Optimization SD模型）,国内SD模型耦合关系研究主要集中在叶尔羌河、洱海、滇池等流域,SD模型在监测、数据共享和模型结构、参数选取和不确定性分析等方面还存在不足,有待改进。
종계통분석적시각출발,대류역계통동역학건모과정、방법진행총결。종술료국내외계통동역학모형（간칭SD모형）재사회경제발전여류역수자원승재력、류역수배경승재화류역수생태승재력우합관계적연구。종간단적령유모형발전도복잡적사회경제종합모형화OO-SD모형（즉Objective-Optimization SD모형）,국내SD모형우합관계연구주요집중재협이강하、이해、전지등류역,SD모형재감측、수거공향화모형결구、삼수선취화불학정성분석등방면환존재불족,유대개진。
From the perspective of system analyses in watershed system dynamic research,the process of system dynamic（SD）modeling and measure are summarized.SD model is formed in the application of coupling relation of population,resources and environment.Watershed system dynamic model has developed from zero direction models to Objective-Optimization system dynamic model（OO-SD Model）.Related researches in China are focused on coupling relation of Yerqiang River,Erhai Lake,Dianchi Lake and other watersheds.The lack of sufficient monitoring data for validation and insufficient consideration of uncertainties affect the coupling relation among watershed changes.Dealing with uncertainties and constructing watershed system dynamic model are available ways for overcoming the shortages.