生物灾害科学
生物災害科學
생물재해과학
Jiangxi Plant Protection
2014年
1期
7-12
,共6页
曾菊平%曾城%欧阳芳%刘兴平%戈峰
曾菊平%曾城%歐暘芳%劉興平%戈峰
증국평%증성%구양방%류흥평%과봉
森林生物灾害%发生面积%发生程度%蓄积损失%直接经济损失%生态服务价值损失
森林生物災害%髮生麵積%髮生程度%蓄積損失%直接經濟損失%生態服務價值損失
삼림생물재해%발생면적%발생정도%축적손실%직접경제손실%생태복무개치손실
forest bio-disaster%diseases%pest%damage by wild rat%damage area%damage degree%forest stock volume%directly economic loss%ecological loss
导致我国森林资源受损的主要生物灾害为森林病害、虫害与鼠害等。基于2000-2010年全国森林病虫鼠害的发生面积、程度等数据，计算获得森林蓄积、直接经济与生态服务功能价值的灾害损失量，采用多元线性回归法等分析我国森林生物灾害发生、灾害损失的特点与趋势。结果表明：我国森林生物灾害发生范围（区域）2010年较2000年增加0.61%，发生面积从2000年的8.52×106公顷次增加到2010年的1.16×107公顷次，增长36.7%，上升趋势显著，对其贡献大小依次为：虫害（贡献率54.2%）>鼠害（贡献率33.3%）>病害（贡献率12.5%）。森林病害、虫害、鼠害发生面积均呈显著上升趋势，尤其是鼠害发生面积2010年较2000年增长105.18%。但是，从发生程度上看，森林生物灾害新增面积以轻度发生为主，其对病虫鼠害、病害、虫害、鼠害面积呈增加趋势的贡献率分别为75%、67.4%、72.8%、54.1%。伴随森林生物灾害面积增加，森林蓄积、生态服务价值损失呈显著上升趋势，如2010年蓄积损失2.48×107 m3、生态服务价值损失895.37亿元，分别较2000年增长5.2%与28.5%，而森林鼠害加重则是导致生态服务价值损失的重要因子。以上结果说明，近10多年来，我国森林生物灾害范围、发生面积显著扩增，尽管扩增面积多以轻度发生为主，但所导致的森林资源损失与发展趋势不容乐观。
導緻我國森林資源受損的主要生物災害為森林病害、蟲害與鼠害等。基于2000-2010年全國森林病蟲鼠害的髮生麵積、程度等數據，計算穫得森林蓄積、直接經濟與生態服務功能價值的災害損失量，採用多元線性迴歸法等分析我國森林生物災害髮生、災害損失的特點與趨勢。結果錶明：我國森林生物災害髮生範圍（區域）2010年較2000年增加0.61%，髮生麵積從2000年的8.52×106公頃次增加到2010年的1.16×107公頃次，增長36.7%，上升趨勢顯著，對其貢獻大小依次為：蟲害（貢獻率54.2%）>鼠害（貢獻率33.3%）>病害（貢獻率12.5%）。森林病害、蟲害、鼠害髮生麵積均呈顯著上升趨勢，尤其是鼠害髮生麵積2010年較2000年增長105.18%。但是，從髮生程度上看，森林生物災害新增麵積以輕度髮生為主，其對病蟲鼠害、病害、蟲害、鼠害麵積呈增加趨勢的貢獻率分彆為75%、67.4%、72.8%、54.1%。伴隨森林生物災害麵積增加，森林蓄積、生態服務價值損失呈顯著上升趨勢，如2010年蓄積損失2.48×107 m3、生態服務價值損失895.37億元，分彆較2000年增長5.2%與28.5%，而森林鼠害加重則是導緻生態服務價值損失的重要因子。以上結果說明，近10多年來，我國森林生物災害範圍、髮生麵積顯著擴增，儘管擴增麵積多以輕度髮生為主，但所導緻的森林資源損失與髮展趨勢不容樂觀。
도치아국삼림자원수손적주요생물재해위삼림병해、충해여서해등。기우2000-2010년전국삼림병충서해적발생면적、정도등수거，계산획득삼림축적、직접경제여생태복무공능개치적재해손실량，채용다원선성회귀법등분석아국삼림생물재해발생、재해손실적특점여추세。결과표명：아국삼림생물재해발생범위（구역）2010년교2000년증가0.61%，발생면적종2000년적8.52×106공경차증가도2010년적1.16×107공경차，증장36.7%，상승추세현저，대기공헌대소의차위：충해（공헌솔54.2%）>서해（공헌솔33.3%）>병해（공헌솔12.5%）。삼림병해、충해、서해발생면적균정현저상승추세，우기시서해발생면적2010년교2000년증장105.18%。단시，종발생정도상간，삼림생물재해신증면적이경도발생위주，기대병충서해、병해、충해、서해면적정증가추세적공헌솔분별위75%、67.4%、72.8%、54.1%。반수삼림생물재해면적증가，삼림축적、생태복무개치손실정현저상승추세，여2010년축적손실2.48×107 m3、생태복무개치손실895.37억원，분별교2000년증장5.2%여28.5%，이삼림서해가중칙시도치생태복무개치손실적중요인자。이상결과설명，근10다년래，아국삼림생물재해범위、발생면적현저확증，진관확증면적다이경도발생위주，단소도치적삼림자원손실여발전추세불용악관。
In China, forests are often damaged by some bio-disasters, mainly including the pest, diseases, wild rats, etc. In this study, we collected the data of forest bio-disasters from 2000 to 2010, computed the loss of directly economic and ecological values, and analyzed the trend with multiple linear regression method. Results showed that the region of forest bio-disasters increased by 0.61%in 2010 compared with that in 2000, and the area of bio-disasters increased by 36.7%, from 8 518 580 hm2 in 2000 to 11 642 430 hm2 in 2010. So there was an obvious up-trend in area from 2000 to 2010. The contribution for this trend was pest area (with 54.2%)>wild rat area (with 33.3%)>disease area (with 12.5%). In effect, all the areas of pest, diseases and wild rats showed an up-trend, especially the damaged area by wild rats increased by 105.18%in 2010, compared with that in 2000. However, most forests were damaged lightly by the bio-disasters, and the increasing trend of forest damage areas was mainly attributed to the increase in lightly-damaged areas by the pest, diseases and wild rats. Then the loss of forest stock volumes, directly economic and ecological values also showed an up-trend. Loss of forest stock volumes was 24 785 000 m3 and loss of ecological values was 89 537 million Yuan in 2010, which increased by 5.2%and 28.5%, respectively, when compared with that in 2000. The ecological loss was mostly attributed to the damage by wild rats. So results showed that both the range and area of forest bio-disasters were enlarged in these ten years, and the new loss of forest resources should be slowed down by taking some control measures.
