CAJ | 학술논문

利用金秀县气象站1961～2009年的气温、降水观测资料，采用最小二乘法、累积距平法和滑动平均等方法，分析金秀县近49a来的气温和降水量的年际和年代际变化时空特征。结果表明：（1）年平均气温的年代际变化特点表现为两个明显的时期，即60～80年代中期为偏冷期，80年代中后期至2000年为偏暖期；而1998～2007年是最暖时期，年平均气温升高了1．3℃。其中冬季增暖最明显，秋季次之。（2）降水量年代际变化特点为：60～70年代为多雨期。其中，70年代是降水量最多的时期，80年代至2009年为少雨期。各季降水量除夏季外均呈减少趋势，以秋季减少最明显；降水詹呈下降趋势，但趋势变化不明显。（3）暴雨日数呈缓慢增加趋势，但不明显。暴雨主要集中在汛期，汛期暴雨口数占全年总次数的87％，其中又以6月份最多，占全年总次数的22％。
이용금수현기상참1961～2009년적기온、강수관측자료，채용최소이승법、루적거평법화활동평균등방법，분석금수현근49a래적기온화강수량적년제화년대제변화시공특정。결과표명：（1）년평균기온적년대제변화특점표현위량개명현적시기，즉60～80년대중기위편랭기，80년대중후기지2000년위편난기；이1998～2007년시최난시기，년평균기온승고료1．3℃。기중동계증난최명현，추계차지。（2）강수량년대제변화특점위：60～70년대위다우기。기중，70년대시강수량최다적시기，80년대지2009년위소우기。각계강수량제하계외균정감소추세，이추계감소최명현；강수첨정하강추세，단추세변화불명현。（3）폭우일수정완만증가추세，단불명현。폭우주요집중재신기，신기폭우구수점전년총차수적87％，기중우이6월빈최다，점전년총차수적22％。
Basing on the temperature and precipitation data from 1991-2009 of Jinxiu County, using the least squares method, cumulative anomaly method and the moving average method, the spatial and temporal character- istics of interannual and decadal changes of temperature and precipitation in Jinxiu County in recent 49 years were analyzed. The results show:l) the cold (warmer, warmest) period is during 1960s to mid-1980s (late- 1980s to 2000, 1998-2007).In the warmest period (1998-2007) ,the annual average temperature increases by 1.3℃ with winter wanning most obviously , followed by autumn.2) The rainy (dry) period is during 1960s- 1970s,especially in 1970s (1980s-2009).The precipitation of each quarter except summer shows a slight decreas- ing trend, especially at autumn.3) The torrential rain days show a slow increasing trend , but not obvious. The rainstorm is mainly concentrated in the flood season. The rainstorm days in flood season (June) account for 87% (22%) of that in the whole year. Especially the rainstorm days in June account for 22% of that in the whole year.