CAJ | 학술논문

利用广西80个气象站1961～2010年的逐日降水量资料，运用线性倾向估计、M—K突变检验等方法分析了广西5个主要极端降水指数在时间、空间上的变化趋势及其差异。结果表明：（1）广西强降水阈值、强降水比例和日降水强度增加趋势显著；大部分台站也呈增加趋势，部分台站增加趋势明显。（2）强降水日数、最大5日降水量变化趋势不明显，但年际间变化较大；各台站也无明显变化趋势。（3）强降水阈值、强降水比例和日降水强度90年代初发生了突变，强降水日数和最大5日降水量未出现突变。
이용엄서80개기상참1961～2010년적축일강수량자료，운용선성경향고계、M—K돌변검험등방법분석료엄서5개주요겁단강수지수재시간、공간상적변화추세급기차이。결과표명：（1）엄서강강수역치、강강수비례화일강수강도증가추세현저；대부분태참야정증가추세，부분태참증가추세명현。（2）강강수일수、최대5일강수량변화추세불명현，단년제간변화교대；각태참야무명현변화추세。（3）강강수역치、강강수비례화일강수강도90년대초발생료돌변，강강수일수화최대5일강수량미출현돌변。
Basing on the daily precipitation data of 80 meteorological stations during 1961 and 2010 in Guangxi, using such methods as linear-trend estimate and Mann-Kendall (M-K) mutation test, the temporal and spatial variation tendency and its differences of five main extreme precipitation indices were analyzed. It shows that: 1 ) the threshold, proportion and intensity of heavy precipitation of all (most, some) stations in Guangxi have a significant increasing(increasing, greatly increasing) trend. 2) The variation tendency (annual variation) of heavy precipitation days and the maximum 5-day precipitation of Guangxi and that of all stations all have no significant (significant) changes.3) The threshold, proportion and daily intensity of heavy precipitation of Guangxi mutate in the early of 1990s, except heavy precipitation days and the maximum 5-day precipitation.