CAJ | 학술논문

选取和布克赛尔县1954-2010年降水资料，采用一元线性回归、累积距平等方法，对月、季、年降水变化特征进行气候变化分析，结果表明：①近57a和布克赛尔县多年平均降水量为136．3mm，年降水量以0．98mm／l0a的速率呈不显著增加趋势，四季中除夏季降水呈不显著减少趋势外，春、秋、冬季均呈不显著增加趋势，全年中仅2月、4月、6月、9月降水量呈减少趋势，其余月份均呈增加趋势。②近57a春、夏、冬季降水异常偏多年份分别出现了12a、14a、6a，秋季异常偏少出现18a，概率为32％。③暴雨事件的发生属小概率事件，中量以上降水发生次数最多，且进入21世纪后明显增多。和布克赛尔降水变化事实表明，降水量增多对农牧业生产发展起着积极的作用，但是极端天气气候事件引发的局地暴雨洪水、冬季雪灾、牧区干旱等灾害需引起高度关注。
선취화포극새이현1954-2010년강수자료，채용일원선성회귀、루적거평등방법，대월、계、년강수변화특정진행기후변화분석，결과표명：①근57a화포극새이현다년평균강수량위136．3mm，년강수량이0．98mm／l0a적속솔정불현저증가추세，사계중제하계강수정불현저감소추세외，춘、추、동계균정불현저증가추세，전년중부2월、4월、6월、9월강수량정감소추세，기여월빈균정증가추세。②근57a춘、하、동계강수이상편다년빈분별출현료12a、14a、6a，추계이상편소출현18a，개솔위32％。③폭우사건적발생속소개솔사건，중량이상강수발생차수최다，차진입21세기후명현증다。화포극새이강수변화사실표명，강수량증다대농목업생산발전기착적겁적작용，단시겁단천기기후사건인발적국지폭우홍수、동계설재、목구간한등재해수인기고도관주。
On the basis of the annual precipitation data from 1954 to 2010 in Hebukesaier County, the monthly, seasonally and annual precipitation variation tendency were analyzed by the method of one-dimensional linear regression and accumulative anomaly. The result showed that ①The average annual precipitation of Hebukesaier County was 136.3mm in the last 57 years, the annual precipitation had indistinctive increase tendency with 0.98mm/10a,on the contrary to Summer, the variation tendencies of annual average precipitation in spring, autumn and winter show a non- significant increase tendency.Monthly precipitation tend to ascend except February, April, June and September, which showed tendency to decrease. ②In the last 57 years, The precipitation of anomalous increase in spring,summer and winter were 12a, 14a and 6a respectively, while the precipitation of anomalous decrease in autumn was 18a, the probability was 32%;③Heavy rainstorm is a low probability event there, precipitation over medium-quantity occurred most frequently, especially since the 21st century. The fact of precipitation characteristics proves that the increase of total precipitation plays an actively role in the development of agricultural and animal husbandry, Meanwhile, the disaster of local storm flood, snow disaster and drought of pastoral area should be pay more attention to by the whole society.