沙漠与绿洲气象
沙漠與綠洲氣象
사막여록주기상
DESERT AND OASIS METEOROLOGY
2012年
5期
30-34
,共5页
鲁西南%8—9月%阴雨日数%平均高度场%相关分析
魯西南%8—9月%陰雨日數%平均高度場%相關分析
로서남%8—9월%음우일수%평균고도장%상관분석
Southwest Shandong%August -September%raining days%the average height field%correlation analysis
对鲁西南1979-2008年8—9月阴雨日数进行统计分析，发现8—9月阴雨日数总体呈上升趋势；与前期北半球500hPa月平均高度场进行相关分析，结果表明：8—9月阴雨日数与北半球500hPa平均高度场存在显著的滞后相关性，共得出45个优势相关区，相关区具有明显的区域性，大多数优势相关区出现在60N以南地区。阴雨日数与前期极涡位置及强弱有很好的对应关系。从优势相关区提取的预报因子具有明显的季节性，上一年秋冬季预报因子占6／9；建立预报方程，试用效果较好。
對魯西南1979-2008年8—9月陰雨日數進行統計分析，髮現8—9月陰雨日數總體呈上升趨勢；與前期北半毬500hPa月平均高度場進行相關分析，結果錶明：8—9月陰雨日數與北半毬500hPa平均高度場存在顯著的滯後相關性，共得齣45箇優勢相關區，相關區具有明顯的區域性，大多數優勢相關區齣現在60N以南地區。陰雨日數與前期極渦位置及彊弱有很好的對應關繫。從優勢相關區提取的預報因子具有明顯的季節性，上一年鞦鼕季預報因子佔6／9；建立預報方程，試用效果較好。
대로서남1979-2008년8—9월음우일수진행통계분석，발현8—9월음우일수총체정상승추세；여전기북반구500hPa월평균고도장진행상관분석，결과표명：8—9월음우일수여북반구500hPa평균고도장존재현저적체후상관성，공득출45개우세상관구，상관구구유명현적구역성，대다수우세상관구출현재60N이남지구。음우일수여전기겁와위치급강약유흔호적대응관계。종우세상관구제취적예보인자구유명현적계절성，상일년추동계예보인자점6／9；건립예보방정，시용효과교호。
Based on the statistical analysis of the raining days in the southwest of Shandong during August-September from 1979-2008, the result showed a upward trend. According to the correlation analysis with the previous monthly average height field at Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa, the raining days and the average height field of northern Hemisphere 500 hPa had a significant lag correlation. 45 advantage-related areas were obtained with significant regional correlation zone and most of the areas were in south of 60~N. Raining days had a good correlation with the pre-position and strength of the polar vortex. Forecast elements extracted from the advantage-related areas were apparently seasonal. The forecast elements for autumn and winter last year accounted for 6 / 9. The application result of prediction equations was good.
