CAJ | 학술논문

采用ECMWF数值预报产品资料,首先用PP法和MOS方法建立溪洛渡水电站坝区三坪站气温预报逐步回归方程,寻找消空（漏）指标进行预报后处理,然后根据000～168时效的ECMWF数值预报产品资料制作未来24～144 h三坪站的最高、最低、平均气温预报。并研制出能自动运行的预报业务系统。2011年业务运行效果检验评估表明：系统预报效果较稳定,6 d平均、最高、最低气温平均预报准确率分别为70.8%、62.7%和76.0%,在水电气象预报服务中短期气温预报实时业务中有较好的指导作用。平均、最高、最低气温准确率随着预报时效的延长效果降低,平均气温和最低气温比最高气温的预报准确率高。预报方法对制作单站气温预报是可行的。
채용ECMWF수치예보산품자료,수선용PP법화MOS방법건립계락도수전참패구삼평참기온예보축보회귀방정,심조소공（루）지표진행예보후처리,연후근거000～168시효적ECMWF수치예보산품자료제작미래24～144 h삼평참적최고、최저、평균기온예보。병연제출능자동운행적예보업무계통。2011년업무운행효과검험평고표명：계통예보효과교은정,6 d평균、최고、최저기온평균예보준학솔분별위70.8%、62.7%화76.0%,재수전기상예보복무중단기기온예보실시업무중유교호적지도작용。평균、최고、최저기온준학솔수착예보시효적연장효과강저,평균기온화최저기온비최고기온적예보준학솔고。예보방법대제작단참기온예보시가행적。
Using ECMWF numerical forecast products,stepwise regression equation of 24-hour to 168-hour termperature Forecast are established by means of PPM and MOS,and post-processing are Conduct through finding indicators so as to Eliminate empty forecast.Then,the future 24～144h highest,lowest,average temperature forecast at Sanping meteorological station are made according to 000 to 168 limitation of the ECMWF numerical forecast production.Furthermore,We have developed a automatically run prediction platform.The effect test operation forecast in 2011 indicated that Forecast result is stable,The rate of average forecast accuracy is 70.8%,62.7% and 76.0% for the average,highest and lowest temperature forecast,which has a good instruction for the real-time weather service at the Hydroelectric Power Station.The forecast accuracy rate of the average,highest and lowest temperature decreased with the forecast time increase,and the accuracy rate for the average,lowest temperature is higher than that of the highest temperature.So the forecasting methods is feasible for the single station temperature prediction.