气象与环境学报
氣象與環境學報
기상여배경학보
JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT
2012年
1期
71-76
,共6页
气温%降水%气候倾向率%气候突变
氣溫%降水%氣候傾嚮率%氣候突變
기온%강수%기후경향솔%기후돌변
Air temperature%Precipitation%Climate tendency rate%Abrupt climate change
利用1960—2009年咸宁市3个地面气象站气象资料,统计分析近50 a来该区域气温、降水等主要气候要素的年变化、四季变化及年代际变化的趋势特征。结果表明：近50 a研究区气温有上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.23℃/10 a,年平均气温在20世纪90年代末发生突变。春秋季平均气温分别在2002年和1999年发生突变,夏季平均气温在2006年发生突变,冬季平均气温在1990年发生突变。春季与秋季平均气温的变化较一致,冬季平均气温对全球变暖响应最敏感,春季与秋季对气候变暖的响应较敏感,而夏季对气候变暖的响应最为迟缓。近50 a咸宁市年降水量呈波动但无明显增降的趋势,其中春夏两季变化趋势较为一致并有下降的趋势,且春夏降水量的变化主导着年降水量的变化;而冬季降水量有上升的趋势。通过对气温与降水变化趋势的比较,发现冬季对气候变化的响应最显著,其余季节无明显相关性。
利用1960—2009年鹹寧市3箇地麵氣象站氣象資料,統計分析近50 a來該區域氣溫、降水等主要氣候要素的年變化、四季變化及年代際變化的趨勢特徵。結果錶明：近50 a研究區氣溫有上升趨勢,氣候傾嚮率為0.23℃/10 a,年平均氣溫在20世紀90年代末髮生突變。春鞦季平均氣溫分彆在2002年和1999年髮生突變,夏季平均氣溫在2006年髮生突變,鼕季平均氣溫在1990年髮生突變。春季與鞦季平均氣溫的變化較一緻,鼕季平均氣溫對全毬變暖響應最敏感,春季與鞦季對氣候變暖的響應較敏感,而夏季對氣候變暖的響應最為遲緩。近50 a鹹寧市年降水量呈波動但無明顯增降的趨勢,其中春夏兩季變化趨勢較為一緻併有下降的趨勢,且春夏降水量的變化主導著年降水量的變化;而鼕季降水量有上升的趨勢。通過對氣溫與降水變化趨勢的比較,髮現鼕季對氣候變化的響應最顯著,其餘季節無明顯相關性。
이용1960—2009년함저시3개지면기상참기상자료,통계분석근50 a래해구역기온、강수등주요기후요소적년변화、사계변화급년대제변화적추세특정。결과표명：근50 a연구구기온유상승추세,기후경향솔위0.23℃/10 a,년평균기온재20세기90년대말발생돌변。춘추계평균기온분별재2002년화1999년발생돌변,하계평균기온재2006년발생돌변,동계평균기온재1990년발생돌변。춘계여추계평균기온적변화교일치,동계평균기온대전구변난향응최민감,춘계여추계대기후변난적향응교민감,이하계대기후변난적향응최위지완。근50 a함저시년강수량정파동단무명현증강적추세,기중춘하량계변화추세교위일치병유하강적추세,차춘하강수량적변화주도착년강수량적변화;이동계강수량유상승적추세。통과대기온여강수변화추세적비교,발현동계대기후변화적향응최현저,기여계절무명현상관성。
Based on the observational data from three meteorological stations in Xianning from 1960 to 2009,the annual,seasonal and inter-decadal variation trends of the main climatic elements such as air temperature and precipitation were analyzed.The results indicate that air temperature is in an increasing trend in recent 50 years in the study area,and the climatic tendency rate is 0.23 ℃/decade.There is an abrupt change in the late of 1990s for the mean annual air temperature.For the seasonal air temperature,the abrupt changes in spring,autumn,summer and winter occur in 2002,1999,2006 and 1990 respectively.The changes of the mean air temperature in spring and autumn are consistent.The response of winter air temperature to the global warming is the most sensitive,and then spring and autumn air temperatures,while the response of summer air temperature to the global warming is not sensitive.Precipitation fluctuates in recent 50 years,while its change in trend is not significant.Spring and summer precipitations are in the decreasing trends and the both dominate the changes of annual precipitation,while winter precipitation is in an increasing trend.By comparison of changes in air temperature and precipitation trends,it has been found that the response of these variables to the climate change is the most significant in winter,and the responses in other seasons are not significant.
