CAJ | 학술논문

结合北京局地暴雨特点,重点分析北京两次局地强暴雨过程的中尺度模式探空资料的特征与应用,同时简单讨论模式探空与降水量预报可能存在不协调的原因。结果表明：1）有利于北京局地暴雨发生的模式探空资料的主要特征是：对流层低层850 hPa以下水汽含量较充足,层结温度线与干绝热线近于平行,地面温度高（大于31℃）;对流层中高层650 hPa以上相对冷干,对流层中低层800—600 hPa存在有利于深对流发生发展的饱和或准饱和层。2）模式探空资料可以正确反映强降水时间分布、降水性质及不同性质降水之间转换等,由于模式自身存在的协调性问题,在局地暴雨预报中有必要重视对模式探空资料的分析。3）上述结论是在两次暴雨过程分析的基础上得到的,今后仍需通过更多个例来进一步考察。
결합북경국지폭우특점,중점분석북경량차국지강폭우과정적중척도모식탐공자료적특정여응용,동시간단토론모식탐공여강수량예보가능존재불협조적원인。결과표명：1）유리우북경국지폭우발생적모식탐공자료적주요특정시：대류층저층850 hPa이하수기함량교충족,층결온도선여간절열선근우평행,지면온도고（대우31℃）;대류층중고층650 hPa이상상대랭간,대류층중저층800—600 hPa존재유리우심대류발생발전적포화혹준포화층。2）모식탐공자료가이정학반영강강수시간분포、강수성질급불동성질강수지간전환등,유우모식자신존재적협조성문제,재국지폭우예보중유필요중시대모식탐공자료적분석。3）상술결론시재량차폭우과정분석적기출상득도적,금후잉수통과경다개례래진일보고찰。
According to the features of the local rainstorm in Beijing,this paper mainly analyzed the features and application of mesoscale model-generated sounding of two cases of local rainstorm in Beijing,also a preliminary discussion of the factors which could result in the disagreement of implication between sounding and rainfall forecast was given.The results show the following：（1） the features of the mesoscale model-generated sounding implying the rainstorm are as follows.The troposphere in lower level contains sufficient moisture to support the deep convections.The stratification curve is parallel to the dry adiabat with ground temperature warmer than 31 ℃,and it is relatively dry and cold above 650 hPa.There is a saturation or quasi-saturation level between the 800-600 hPa in the middle and lower troposphere,which is beneficial for occurrence and development of deep convection.2） The model-generated soundings can provide a useful implication of the temporal distribution of rainstorm,the characteristics of the rain,and the transition from convectional rain to continuous rain.It is necessary to pay more attention to analyze the model-generated sounding due to the possible disagreement between the rainfall and the sounding.3） The above conclusions are made based on two cases,and further investigation of more cases is needed.