CAJ | 학술논문

现金股利政策作为上市公司一项重要的财务决策,历来受到财务金融界的广泛关注。运用Logit回归和Tobit回归方法,系统地探讨了行业因素对现金股利支付意愿和支付水平的影响。行业前期的股利支付水平和行业竞争程度对上市公司的现金股利政策产生显著的正向影响;现金股利政策与行业的股利需求偏好无关;行业的平均市盈率对现金股利支付意愿产生显著的负向影响。同一行业中管理层的羊群行为相对于投资者的股利需求偏好能够更好地解释我国上市公司的股利分配政策。
현금고리정책작위상시공사일항중요적재무결책,력래수도재무금융계적엄범관주。운용Logit회귀화Tobit회귀방법,계통지탐토료행업인소대현금고리지부의원화지부수평적영향。행업전기적고리지부수평화행업경쟁정도대상시공사적현금고리정책산생현저적정향영향;현금고리정책여행업적고리수구편호무관;행업적평균시영솔대현금고리지부의원산생현저적부향영향。동일행업중관리층적양군행위상대우투자자적고리수구편호능구경호지해석아국상시공사적고리분배정책。
Being one of the most classical fields of the science of finance,dividend policy is still a much-debated problem.Logit and Tobit models were used in this paper to examine industrial factors＇ influence on dividend policy,and to study ＂whether to pay＂ and ＂how much to pay＂ at the same time.On one hand,the prior year industrial cash dividend payout and the degrees of industrial competition have a positive effect on the propensity to pay cash dividends and levels of dividend payments in this period;on the other hand,PE of the industry has a negative effect;in addition,the preference for industrial dividends demand has no significant effects on cash policy.In the end of the paper,we make the conclusion that compared with catering theory of dividends,herding behavior of managers can better explain the dividend policy of listed companies in China.