CAJ | 학술논문

为提高预见期内洪水预报精度,选取湖北省漳河水库2006—2008年汛期逐小时流域降水量、流量资料以及武汉暴雨研究所提供的相应时段AREM模式预报的00—60 h逐小时降水预报产品作为研究资料,引入贝叶斯概率统计模型对AREM模式的降水预报进行订正,并分别对订正前后的预报降水进行对比分析;其后,进一步将AREM模式预报订正前后的降水预报值分别输入新安江水文模型进行洪水预报试验。结果表明,订正后的预报降水比订正前的精度有所提高,均方根误差减小幅度小于10%;检验期场次洪水的平均确定性系数提高10.66%,平均洪峰相对误差减小3.05%,洪水预报精度在一定程度上有所提高。
위제고예견기내홍수예보정도,선취호북성장하수고2006—2008년신기축소시류역강수량、류량자료이급무한폭우연구소제공적상응시단AREM모식예보적00—60 h축소시강수예보산품작위연구자료,인입패협사개솔통계모형대AREM모식적강수예보진행정정,병분별대정정전후적예보강수진행대비분석;기후,진일보장AREM모식예보정정전후적강수예보치분별수입신안강수문모형진행홍수예보시험。결과표명,정정후적예보강수비정정전적정도유소제고,균방근오차감소폭도소우10%;검험기장차홍수적평균학정성계수제고10.66%,평균홍봉상대오차감소3.05%,홍수예보정도재일정정도상유소제고。
To improve the accuracy of the flood prediction in forecast period,the Bayesian probabilistic model is introduced to correct the precipitation forecasted by AREM model using the hourly precipitation,flow data of the flood season of Zhanghe Reservoir in Hubei province from 2006 to 2008 and the corresponding 00-60 h hourly AREM forecasting precipitation provided by IHR（Institute of Heavy Rain in WuHan）.The corrected and non corrected precipitation are analyzed comparatively,and then the both corrected and non corrected forecasting precipitation by AREM model are input into Xin＇an-jiang hydrology flood forecast model.The results show that the corrected forecasting precipitation has the higher accuracy than that of non corrected one.The root mean square error was decreased by less than 10%.The average flood deterministic coefficient increases by 10.66%,the average relative error of peak reduces by 3.05% in the verification period.It improved the precision of flood forecast to some extent.