暴雨灾害
暴雨災害
폭우재해
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND DISASTERS
2012年
1期
44-51
,共8页
赵培娟%吴蓁%职旭%袁小超
趙培娟%吳蓁%職旭%袁小超
조배연%오진%직욱%원소초
大暴雨%西南低涡%物理量诊断%暴雨预报模型%客观预报方法
大暴雨%西南低渦%物理量診斷%暴雨預報模型%客觀預報方法
대폭우%서남저와%물리량진단%폭우예보모형%객관예보방법
extra rainstorm%southwest vortex%physical diagnosis%rainstorm forecast model%objective forecasting method
利用常规气象观测资料和NCEP1×1间隔6 h的再分析资料,对2010年9月6—7日出现在河南的一次大暴雨过程进行诊断分析。结果表明：（1）高纬冷空气沿乌拉尔山东侧呈东北—西南向高压脊前偏北气流南下,在新疆地区堆积形成闭合冷性低涡,该低涡中分裂出低槽携带冷空气东移,在河南省境内与副热带高压边缘暖湿气流汇合,导致了这次大暴雨过程;（2）贝加尔湖附近的下滑槽东移南下,引导冷空气侵入沿切变线东移进入河南省的西南低涡,使该处大气斜压性增强,低涡发展,导致豫北及豫东地区中低层辐合明显加强,促使降水加强;（3）此次过程,副热带高压呈带状,脊线稳定在26—27 N,副高边缘西南暖湿气流与中、低空西南低涡或其前部的切变线共同作用,呈现出河南省区域暴雨的典型天气形势。此外,应用河南省暴雨预报模型结合物理量诊断客观预报方法,能较好地预报这次大暴雨过程的落区及量级,表明该方法对区域性暴雨、大暴雨预报有较好的参考作用。
利用常規氣象觀測資料和NCEP1×1間隔6 h的再分析資料,對2010年9月6—7日齣現在河南的一次大暴雨過程進行診斷分析。結果錶明：（1）高緯冷空氣沿烏拉爾山東側呈東北—西南嚮高壓脊前偏北氣流南下,在新疆地區堆積形成閉閤冷性低渦,該低渦中分裂齣低槽攜帶冷空氣東移,在河南省境內與副熱帶高壓邊緣暖濕氣流彙閤,導緻瞭這次大暴雨過程;（2）貝加爾湖附近的下滑槽東移南下,引導冷空氣侵入沿切變線東移進入河南省的西南低渦,使該處大氣斜壓性增彊,低渦髮展,導緻豫北及豫東地區中低層輻閤明顯加彊,促使降水加彊;（3）此次過程,副熱帶高壓呈帶狀,脊線穩定在26—27 N,副高邊緣西南暖濕氣流與中、低空西南低渦或其前部的切變線共同作用,呈現齣河南省區域暴雨的典型天氣形勢。此外,應用河南省暴雨預報模型結閤物理量診斷客觀預報方法,能較好地預報這次大暴雨過程的落區及量級,錶明該方法對區域性暴雨、大暴雨預報有較好的參攷作用。
이용상규기상관측자료화NCEP1×1간격6 h적재분석자료,대2010년9월6—7일출현재하남적일차대폭우과정진행진단분석。결과표명：（1）고위랭공기연오랍이산동측정동북—서남향고압척전편북기류남하,재신강지구퇴적형성폐합랭성저와,해저와중분렬출저조휴대랭공기동이,재하남성경내여부열대고압변연난습기류회합,도치료저차대폭우과정;（2）패가이호부근적하활조동이남하,인도랭공기침입연절변선동이진입하남성적서남저와,사해처대기사압성증강,저와발전,도치예북급예동지구중저층복합명현가강,촉사강수가강;（3）차차과정,부열대고압정대상,척선은정재26—27 N,부고변연서남난습기류여중、저공서남저와혹기전부적절변선공동작용,정현출하남성구역폭우적전형천기형세。차외,응용하남성폭우예보모형결합물리량진단객관예보방법,능교호지예보저차대폭우과정적락구급량급,표명해방법대구역성폭우、대폭우예보유교호적삼고작용。
Based on routine meteorological observation data and NCEP 1°×1°reanalysis data,an extra rainstorm event in Henan province from September 6 to 7 in 2010 was analyzed.The results indicate the following.（1） The establishment of high-pressure ridge from SW to NE at east of Ural Mountains guides the high latitude cold air accumulated in Xinjiang area and leads to the formation of a closed cold vortex in the area,and the low trough split off from the closed vortex continuously moves with cold air eastward and meets with the warm and humid air at subtropical edge in Henan province and produces an extra rainstorm.（2） Glide cold trough near Lake Baikal moves eastward and down south,guiding cool air to intrude into the southwest vortex moving along the shear line eastward into the Henan province,leading to the atmospheric baroclinicity enhancement and the vortex development.The middle and low level convergence is significantly strengthened in the north and east Henan province,and the precipitation development is promoted.（3） The subtropical high took on the shape of zones and its ridge line was stable at 26°-27°N.The interaction between southwest warm wet air current at the edge of the subtropical high and southwest vortex in middle level and low level（or the front shear line） is a typical weather situation of this rainstorm in Henan area.In addition,application of forecast model of torrential rain in Henan province and the physical diagnosis method of objective forecast to this rainstorm forecast can better forecast the rainfall area and precipitation magnitude showing the method has a good reference to forecast regional rainstorm and extra rainstorm.
