CAJ | 학술논문

利用2009年11月1日至2010年3月31日沈阳逐日6时次气温、气压、相对湿度、降水、风速、日照和云量等气象资料及同时间、同时次的供、回水温度等供暖资料,采用多元线性回归方法,建立供暖预报方程,制定供暖气象节能预报指数,并根据供暖指数大小确定供热量。结果表明：在确保室温达到18℃时,沈阳的供暖指数可以分为7级;供热量（即供、回水温度值）预报值与气温实况值相似度较高,而供热量实际值与气温实况值相差较大。在151 d的供暖期内,约60 d的供、回水温度与气温变化接近,占供暖日数的40%。采用供暖气象节能预报方法进行供暖,在改善供暖质量的同时也可达到节能减排的目的,可为供暖部门科学供暖、降低能耗提供科学依据。
이용2009년11월1일지2010년3월31일침양축일6시차기온、기압、상대습도、강수、풍속、일조화운량등기상자료급동시간、동시차적공、회수온도등공난자료,채용다원선성회귀방법,건립공난예보방정,제정공난기상절능예보지수,병근거공난지수대소학정공열량。결과표명：재학보실온체도18℃시,침양적공난지수가이분위7급;공열량（즉공、회수온도치）예보치여기온실황치상사도교고,이공열량실제치여기온실황치상차교대。재151 d적공난기내,약60 d적공、회수온도여기온변화접근,점공난일수적40%。채용공난기상절능예보방법진행공난,재개선공난질량적동시야가체도절능감배적목적,가위공난부문과학공난、강저능모제공과학의거。
Based on the diurnal meteorological data with 4 hours interval from November 1,2009 to March 31,2010 such as temperature,air pressure,relative humidity,precipitation,wind speed,sunshine duration and cloud cover etc.and the simultaneous heating data including temperature of supply water and backwater,a forecast equation was established in Shenyang by a multi-regression method.A heating meteorological forecast index was developed and it could be used to determine the heating load.The results show that the heating meteorological forecast index could be divided into 7 levels if the indoor temperature must reach 18 ℃.The trends of predicted temperature of supply water and backwater and outdoor air temperature are close,while the trends of the real temperature of supply water and backwater and outdoor air temperature are different.The number of days that the trend of the real temperature of supply water and backwater is similar to that of outdoor air temperature is only 60 days and accounts for 40% of heating period(151 days).The application of the heating meteorological forecast method could improve the quality of heating,control high-energy-consuming and high-emission and provide scientific references for the corresponding department.