CAJ | 학술논문

辽河流域是中国七大流域之一,长期以来一直存在水资源严重不足的问题。采用1961—2009年辽河流域境内水文、气象观测数据,研究气象、水文要素历史变化特征,并采用同期和滞后相关分析,建立气象要素与水文要素的最优相关关系。结果表明：辽河流域气候变暖明显,增温幅度远高于全球和中国的同期增温幅度;辽河流域降水量增减趋势不明显,总体上为略减少趋势,但存在明显的少—多—少—多—少5个阶段性变化。辽河流域蒸发量为略减少趋势,春季、夏季是蒸发量较大季节。近50 a辽河流域径流量为减少趋势,经历了偏多—偏少—偏多—偏少4个阶段的变化,1996—2009年经历了年径流量最少阶段,平均年径流量仅为16.2亿m3,只达到多年平均径流量的58%、径流量最多年代的32%。一年之中,7月和8月径流量最大,两个月径流量占全年的50%。辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系。在年尺度,径流量与铁岭、法库等地区降水量相关系数为0.60;在日尺度,日降水量与降水发生后第2日经流量相关程度最好,在所有等级上两者相关系数为0.70或以上;在日降水量大于等于25 mm等级上,相关系数最高为0.85。
료하류역시중국칠대류역지일,장기이래일직존재수자원엄중불족적문제。채용1961—2009년료하류역경내수문、기상관측수거,연구기상、수문요소역사변화특정,병채용동기화체후상관분석,건립기상요소여수문요소적최우상관관계。결과표명：료하류역기후변난명현,증온폭도원고우전구화중국적동기증온폭도;료하류역강수량증감추세불명현,총체상위략감소추세,단존재명현적소—다—소—다—소5개계단성변화。료하류역증발량위략감소추세,춘계、하계시증발량교대계절。근50 a료하류역경류량위감소추세,경력료편다—편소—편다—편소4개계단적변화,1996—2009년경력료년경류량최소계단,평균년경류량부위16.2억m3,지체도다년평균경류량적58%、경류량최다년대적32%。일년지중,7월화8월경류량최대,량개월경류량점전년적50%。료하류역강수량여경류량유교호적상관관계。재년척도,경류량여철령、법고등지구강수량상관계수위0.60;재일척도,일강수량여강수발생후제2일경류량상관정도최호,재소유등급상량자상관계수위0.70혹이상;재일강수량대우등우25 mm등급상,상관계수최고위0.85。
The Liaohe river basin is one of seven major basins in China,and it has always a serious shortage of water resources.Based on the hydrological and meteorological data from 1961 to 2009,the evolution characteristics were analyzed.The optimal relationship between meteorological elements and hydrological elements were established by the same period and lagged correlation analysis.The results indicate that the warming is obvious in the Liaohe river basin and its amplitude is higher in this basin than in the globe and in China.The variation of precipitation is not obvious in the Liaohe river basin.In general,precipitation is in a slightly decreasing trend.However,there are five obvious fluctuated phases for precipitation variation,i.e.less-more-less-more-less.Evaporation amount is also in a slightly decreasing trend,and so is the runoff in the Liaohe river basin.Evaporation amount is high in spring and summer.There are four fluctuated phases for runoff variations i.e.more-less-more-less.The annual runoff is the least during 1996 to 2009,and the average is only 1.62×108 m3,which is 58% of the mean annual runoff and 32% of the largest inter-decadal runoff.Runoff concentrates in July and August and amount of which accounts for 50.24% of the amount in whole year.There is a good relationship between precipitation and runoff in the Liaohe river basin.For the annual scale,their correlation coefficients in Tieling and Faku both reach 0.60.For the diurnal scale,the correlation relationship is significant between the current precipitation and runoff on the second day.For all levels,both correlation coefficients exceed 0.70.The highest correlation coefficient could reach 0.85 when the diurnal precipitation is equal or exceeds 25 mm.