CAJ | 학술논문

城际铁路为保证线路的高平顺性，对桥梁、路基、涵洞、隧道、过渡段等线下工程沉降量有着严格的要求，必须进行沉降预测评估。基于实测数据的沉降预测方法主要有曲线拟合法、灰色系统分析模型等，本文首先对多种预测方法进行对比分析，然后综合考虑曲线拟合法与GM（1，1）模型的优点，提出一种基于CTM（1，1）模型数据的曲线拟合预测方法．并通过武成城际铁路工程实例验证，说明该方法用于城际铁路线下工程沉降预测是可行的。
성제철로위보증선로적고평순성，대교량、로기、함동、수도、과도단등선하공정침강량유착엄격적요구，필수진행침강예측평고。기우실측수거적침강예측방법주요유곡선의합법、회색계통분석모형등，본문수선대다충예측방법진행대비분석，연후종합고필곡선의합법여GM（1，1）모형적우점，제출일충기우CTM（1，1）모형수거적곡선의합예측방법．병통과무성성제철로공정실례험증，설명해방법용우성제철로선하공정침강예측시가행적。
Inter-city railway is strict in the settlement of bridge, roadbed, culvert and tunnel because of the railway' s smooth, it should proceed the sedimentation prediction. The methods of sedimentation prediction mainly include the curve-fitting method and Grey model theory. The article firstly carries on the contrast analysis of several prediction meth- ods and considers the advantages of curve-fitting method and GM (1,1)model, proposes the curve-fitting prediction method based on GM( 1,1 )model. Verified by Wu-Xian inter-city railway' s project,it is indicating that the proposed new method for inter-city railway' s project under Line sedimentation prediction is feasible.