CAJ | 학술논문

以线性趋势和R/S分析方法对内蒙古开鲁县1953—2010年各季和年平均气温、年平均降水量进行了分析。结果表明,58年来开鲁县年及各季均温呈上升趋势,夏季均温的时序相关系数在0.01显著水平以上,其他为0.001极显著水平以上,倾向率为每10年上升0.19～0.41℃,而且均符合赫斯特现象,H值≥0.7139,未来将继续维持上升趋势;年及夏、秋季平均降水量为减少趋势,时序相关系数大于或接近0.10水平,春、冬季为增加趋势;年及各季降水量变化符合赫斯特现象,其中,年及春、夏、冬季的H值≥0.6026,未来年及夏季降水量将维持减少趋势,春、冬季维持增加趋势,秋季H值接0.5,未来趋势难以预测。
이선성추세화R/S분석방법대내몽고개로현1953—2010년각계화년평균기온、년평균강수량진행료분석。결과표명,58년래개로현년급각계균온정상승추세,하계균온적시서상관계수재0.01현저수평이상,기타위0.001겁현저수평이상,경향솔위매10년상승0.19～0.41℃,이차균부합혁사특현상,H치≥0.7139,미래장계속유지상승추세;년급하、추계평균강수량위감소추세,시서상관계수대우혹접근0.10수평,춘、동계위증가추세;년급각계강수량변화부합혁사특현상,기중,년급춘、하、동계적H치≥0.6026,미래년급하계강수량장유지감소추세,춘、동계유지증가추세,추계H치접0.5,미래추세난이예측。
Using linear trend and R/S analysis method, the temperature and rainfall in Kailu County of Inner Mongolia in different season and the whole year during 1953-2010 were analyzed. The results show that the average temperature in Kailu County in the whole year and different season in recent 58 years showed the increasing trend and the succession correlation coefficient of the average temperature in the summer was above 0.01 significant level and others were above 0.001 significant level. The trend rate was to increase 0.19- 0.41 ℃for each 10 years and was all in line with Hurst phenomenon. H values in the spring, summer, autumn and whole year were all more than 0.602 6. The annual and summer rainfall in the future would keep the decreasing trend and that in spring and winter would keep the increasing trend. H value in autumn was near to 0.5 and the future trend was hard to be predicted.