CAJ | 학술논문

利用陕西省1978—2009年的能源消费数据,计算陕西省碳排放量和碳排放强度的变化;根据工业内部各行业的碳排放强度进行了高碳、中碳和低碳行业的划分;以产业结构层次系数作为衡量产业结构高级化的指标,分析产业结构高级化的碳排放效应,并对产业结构层次和碳排放强度进行回归分析.结果表明,产业结构与能源消费碳排放之间具有密切联系,第二产业尤其是工业碳排放比重较大,陕西省2009年工业内部高耗能（碳）行业碳排放量占94%以上.通过EG协整检验,证明产业结构层次系数和碳排放强度之间存在长期的稳定关系,产业结构的调整对降低碳排放强度具有较明显作用,对节能减排、降低CO2排放量具有较大潜力.
이용합서성1978—2009년적능원소비수거,계산합서성탄배방량화탄배방강도적변화;근거공업내부각행업적탄배방강도진행료고탄、중탄화저탄행업적화분;이산업결구층차계수작위형양산업결구고급화적지표,분석산업결구고급화적탄배방효응,병대산업결구층차화탄배방강도진행회귀분석.결과표명,산업결구여능원소비탄배방지간구유밀절련계,제이산업우기시공업탄배방비중교대,합서성2009년공업내부고모능（탄）행업탄배방량점94%이상.통과EG협정검험,증명산업결구층차계수화탄배방강도지간존재장기적은정관계,산업결구적조정대강저탄배방강도구유교명현작용,대절능감배、강저CO2배방량구유교대잠력.
According to the energy consumption data of 1978--2009 , carbon emissions and its intensity in Shaanxi province were calculated and different industry was divided based on different carbon emission intensity; the level coefficient of industrial structure was selected as an indicator to analyze the effects of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions. The results show that, industrial structure has a close correlation with carbon emissions of energy consumption in Shaanxi province. The secondary industry, particularly the industry sector has a large proportion of carbon emission, and the emission proportion of high carbon industry is more than 94% in 2009. The EG co-integration test proves that there is a long-term stable relationship between industrial structure and carbon emission intensity and industrial structure upgrading has great potentialities in economizing energy consumption and reducing carbon emissions.