CAJ | 학술논문

基于“控制-干预”的思想，文章使用1998～2009年中国城镇住户调查数据，通过双差分模型和三次差分模型，分析了高校扩招政策对大学毕业生工资的干预效应。研究结果表明：在大学毕业生群体中，受到扩招影响的新毕业生遭受了一定程度的工资损失；考虑高中毕业生的相对变化后，高校扩招对大学新毕业生年工资的负效应显著减弱。在扩招干预效应的变化上，本文发现：随着时间的推移，扩招对新毕业生工资的负效应逐渐减弱，受扩招影响的较年长大学毕业生的工资损失降低。
기우“공제-간예”적사상，문장사용1998～2009년중국성진주호조사수거，통과쌍차분모형화삼차차분모형，분석료고교확초정책대대학필업생공자적간예효응。연구결과표명：재대학필업생군체중，수도확초영향적신필업생조수료일정정도적공자손실；고필고중필업생적상대변화후，고교확초대대학신필업생년공자적부효응현저감약。재확초간예효응적변화상，본문발현：수착시간적추이，확초대신필업생공자적부효응축점감약，수확초영향적교년장대학필업생적공자손실강저。
Under a treatment control framework , this paper uses DID ( Difference in Difference Models ) Method and its extended form ( Difference in Difference in Difference Models ) with the Ur-ban Household Survey Datasets from 1998 to 2009 , to investigate the impact of higher education expansion policy on college graduates in the labor market .The results indicate that higher education expansion has caused the wage loss of college graduates who affected by this policy , when we take the change of high school graduates into consideration , the loss of wage can be reduced .Considering impact changes of the higher education expansion , this study finds that the negative effect on the youngest college graduates has decreased over time and loss of wage in older college graduates has been smaller than their youth .