CAJ | 학술논문

把握经济增长与产业结构的内在规律是制定合理经济发展政策的基础和依据．笔者以山东省为例，运用 ADF 检验、协整检验、Granger 因果关系检验等计量方法，借助 Eviews5．0软件，分析了山东省1978-2010年经济增长与产业结构间的耦合关系．研究发现：1）山东省经济增长与三次产业结构演化间存在长期的均衡关系；2）经济增长与三次产业结构演化间存在单向因果关系，即三次产业变动是经济增长的 Granger 原因．
파악경제증장여산업결구적내재규률시제정합리경제발전정책적기출화의거．필자이산동성위례，운용 ADF 검험、협정검험、Granger 인과관계검험등계량방법，차조 Eviews5．0연건，분석료산동성1978-2010년경제증장여산업결구간적우합관계．연구발현：1）산동성경제증장여삼차산업결구연화간존재장기적균형관계；2）경제증장여삼차산업결구연화간존재단향인과관계，즉삼차산업변동시경제증장적 Granger 원인．
To hold the inner law of economic increasing and industrial structure is the basis of setting up appropriate economic -developing policies.Using the calculation methods of ADF test,co -integration test, granger causality test,etc,with the assistant of the software Eviews5.0,the dynamic relationship between the economic increasing and industrial structure of Shandong Province during 1 978 -201 0 is analyzed.We have found that:1 )To Shandong Province,there is a long -standing relationship between the economic increasing and three times of industrial structure evolution,but there is imbalance in the short term.2)There is one -way causal relationship existed between the economic increasing and three times of industrial structure evolution,thus the Granger cause of economic increasing is the three times of industrial evolution.