CAJ | 학술논문

电网连锁性故障常为稀有事件，传统随机评估法用概率测度刻画其不确定性，存在仿真精度与抽样次数间的矛盾。基于模糊性与随机性的统一性原则，用模糊性刻画连锁性故障的不确定性，并依据可信性理论，建立包含可信性测度、总负荷损失和风险测度的连锁性故障风险评价测度体系。用保护装置隐性故障模型刻画连锁性故障诱发机制，基于历史统计信息或人工预想事故集，提出电网连锁性故障识别和风险评估基本框架与数学模型。对 WSCC 9节点和IEEE 30节点测试系统进行仿真，并与随机评估法比较，结果证明，所提方法准确、有效，样本依赖性小，有较好的鲁棒性，适合于工程应用。
전망련쇄성고장상위희유사건，전통수궤평고법용개솔측도각화기불학정성，존재방진정도여추양차수간적모순。기우모호성여수궤성적통일성원칙，용모호성각화련쇄성고장적불학정성，병의거가신성이론，건립포함가신성측도、총부하손실화풍험측도적련쇄성고장풍험평개측도체계。용보호장치은성고장모형각화련쇄성고장유발궤제，기우역사통계신식혹인공예상사고집，제출전망련쇄성고장식별화풍험평고기본광가여수학모형。대 WSCC 9절점화IEEE 30절점측시계통진행방진，병여수궤평고법비교，결과증명，소제방법준학、유효，양본의뢰성소，유교호적로봉성，괄합우공정응용。
The current stochastic assessment method usually adopts the probability measure to quantify the uncertainty of cascading failures. There is a contradiction between simulation precise and samplings because of the rarity of cascading failures. The cascading failure event was treated as a fuzzy one based on the united principle of fuzziness and randomness in this paper. The risk evaluation measure system, including the credibility measure, total load loss and risk measure, was introduced based on the credibility theory. The hidden failure model of protection systems was taken as the propagation mechanism of cascading failures, and then the basic framework and mathematical model of identification and risk assessment of cascading failures were proposed through historical statistical information or artificial contingency sets. On the simulation of the WSCC nine-bus and IEEE thirty-bus test system, compared with the stochastic assessment method, the results have shown that the proposed method is accurate, valid, little dependent on samplings and robust, and it is suitable for practical engineering applications.