CAJ | 학술논문

比较不同风速模拟方法对可靠性评估的影响，为风速模拟方法的选择提供依据。首先，根据实测风速数据研究了风速的季节特性、日特性、自相关性等宏观特性，分析并比较了实测风速法、实测风速均值法、概率抽样法、多状态等效法和时间序列模拟法在模拟风速宏观特性上的差异。然后，针对无条件期望可靠性指标的不足，提出了充裕度评估中条件可靠性指标体系，并给出了分割多目标风险分析框架下基于蒙特卡洛方法的电力系统充裕度评估过程。最后，对加入风电的IEEE-RTS测试系统进行了可靠性评估。算例结果表明：时间序列模型计算出的无条件及条件可靠性指标与实测风速法相比差别较小；概率抽样法计算出的系统状态指标呈高频率、低持续时间的特点；风速均值法计算出的健康状态条件概率偏大，而临界状态和风险状态的条件概率偏小，且健康状态呈现明显的低频率、长持续时间的特点。
비교불동풍속모의방법대가고성평고적영향，위풍속모의방법적선택제공의거。수선，근거실측풍속수거연구료풍속적계절특성、일특성、자상관성등굉관특성，분석병비교료실측풍속법、실측풍속균치법、개솔추양법、다상태등효법화시간서렬모의법재모의풍속굉관특성상적차이。연후，침대무조건기망가고성지표적불족，제출료충유도평고중조건가고성지표체계，병급출료분할다목표풍험분석광가하기우몽특잡락방법적전력계통충유도평고과정。최후，대가입풍전적IEEE-RTS측시계통진행료가고성평고。산례결과표명：시간서렬모형계산출적무조건급조건가고성지표여실측풍속법상비차별교소；개솔추양법계산출적계통상태지표정고빈솔、저지속시간적특점；풍속균치법계산출적건강상태조건개솔편대，이림계상태화풍험상태적조건개솔편소，차건강상태정현명현적저빈솔、장지속시간적특점。
The impacts of wind speed simulation methods on reliability assessment were discussed to provide useful reference for selection of those methods. First, the seasonal and diurnal characteristics, autocorrelation were investigated based on the observed wind speed data. The advantages and dis-advantages of the observed wind method, the mean observed wind speed method, the probability sampling method, the multi-state equivalent method and the time series modelling method were analyzed. Second, aiming at the disadvantages of the unconditional expected values of the reliability indices, the conditional reliability indices for adequacy evaluation were proposed, and the reliability assessment process of power systems based on the partitioned multi-objective risk method (PMRM) was discussed. Finally, the modified IEEE-RTS including wind generation was evaluated based on the PMRM . Numerical results show that there is little difference in the unconditional and conditional reliability indices between time series methods and the observed wind speed method; the conditional reliability indices of system states using the probability sampling method have the characteristic of high frequency and short duration;the conditional probability of the healthy state using the mean observed wind speed method is larger whereas the conditional probabilities of the marginal and at-risk states are smaller compared with using the observed wind speed method, and the healthy state presents the pro-perties of low frequency and long duration.