CAJ | 학술논문

本文研究了油田A类物资的市场价格预测。采用时间序列方法中的ARIMA模型，结合油田物资历史价格数据，分析并提出了一套针对油田A类物资的市场价格预测模式。该模式包括两个模块：样本集模块和ARI-MA模块。样本集模块的主要功能是样本集的输入和实时更新；ARIMA模块包括了价格预测模型的拟合、检验、预测、评价、动态反馈和调整等主要环节。在该模式的指导下，以大庆油田A类采购物资中的小螺纹钢（20-HRB335）（天津、石家庄和沈阳3个产地）为例，对2011年各月的市场价格进行了模拟预测，预测的平均相对误差分别控制在2．13％，1．64％和1．82％，该结果得到了用户的认可。该预测模式的运用对大庆油田物资集团制定合理的物资采购方案提供了依据。结论部分对该预测模式的意义及存在问题进行了分析，并给出改进建议。
본문연구료유전A류물자적시장개격예측。채용시간서렬방법중적ARIMA모형，결합유전물자역사개격수거，분석병제출료일투침대유전A류물자적시장개격예측모식。해모식포괄량개모괴：양본집모괴화ARI-MA모괴。양본집모괴적주요공능시양본집적수입화실시경신；ARIMA모괴포괄료개격예측모형적의합、검험、예측、평개、동태반궤화조정등주요배절。재해모식적지도하，이대경유전A류채구물자중적소라문강（20-HRB335）（천진、석가장화침양3개산지）위례，대2011년각월적시장개격진행료모의예측，예측적평균상대오차분별공제재2．13％，1．64％화1．82％，해결과득도료용호적인가。해예측모식적운용대대경유전물자집단제정합리적물자채구방안제공료의거。결론부분대해예측모식적의의급존재문제진행료분석，병급출개진건의。
The monthly market-price forecasting framework for the Oilfield Class-A materials , taking a large pro-portion in total purchasing cost , is considered based on the ARIMA model in time series method .The framework includes the sample set module and the ARIMA module .The sample set module provides a sample input for fore-casting and updating in real time .The ARIMA module includes how to fit , test , forecast , evaluate and dynami-cally revise the model .According to the framework , in China Daqing Oilfield , market-prices in three places from January to December in 2011 of the Small Deformed Steel Bar(20-HRB335)in Class-A materials are predicted, including Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and Shenyang .The accuracies of the prediction are no more than 2.13%, 1 .64% and 1 .82%, respectively , which is given a high evaluation by users .It provides the basis for Daqing Oilfiled Materials Corporation in making optimal material purchasing decision .Finally, suggestions of improving this framework are presented .