CAJ | 학술논문

本文讨论多期有限理性条件下可再生资源开发的寡头博弈模型。在每个经济时期以实现多个相邻时期的总贴现利润最大化为目的而得到双寡头决策者资源开发的最优策略组合，并以各期最优策略组合构建资源开发决策的动力系统。通过对系统的动力学分析，讨论了系统中各参数对系统的稳定性与稳定状态的作用与影响，并给出了相应的经济解释。分析了反馈控制系统的稳定性。最后通过对系统的数值模拟，分析了各参数的取值变化与系统稳定速度之间的关系。本文通过系统的稳定性分析获得的主要结论是，资源市场竞争的稳定与可持续发展与决策者注重后期经济利益的决策理性密切相关。
본문토론다기유한이성조건하가재생자원개발적과두박혁모형。재매개경제시기이실현다개상린시기적총첩현리윤최대화위목적이득도쌍과두결책자자원개발적최우책략조합，병이각기최우책략조합구건자원개발결책적동력계통。통과대계통적동역학분석，토론료계통중각삼수대계통적은정성여은정상태적작용여영향，병급출료상응적경제해석。분석료반궤공제계통적은정성。최후통과대계통적수치모의，분석료각삼수적취치변화여계통은정속도지간적관계。본문통과계통적은정성분석획득적주요결론시，자원시장경쟁적은정여가지속발전여결책자주중후기경제이익적결책이성밀절상관。
Based on multi-period bounded rationality , a dynamical system for the duopoly game of renewable resource extraction is proposed in the work .In the dynamics modeled each producer ’ s optimal extraction strategy is chosen to maximize his discounted profits in several adjacent periods .Dynamical analysis is done for the influ-ence of the model parameters on the equilibrium state and its stability , and economic explanations for the results are given.A controlled system with feedback control is given and its stability is discussed .Numerical simulation is made to show the influence of the parameters on the convergence speed of the dynamics .The main conclusion shown from the dynamical analysis of the system is that the stability and sustainability of resource development is correlated and dependent with decision-makers’ rationality of focusing on the long-term profits.