CAJ | 학술논문

韩国总统朴槿惠上台后的第一次访华，被定位为“心信之旅”。朴槿惠总统访华，不仅中韩战略合作伙伴关系得到了全面的充实和提高，在中韩关系史上具有重大的战略意义，而且，中朝关系和朝鲜半岛南北关系也面临着新的变化和调整。朴槿惠总统访华后，朝鲜半岛局势的发展，仍将取决于三大变量，即美朝关系、朝鲜半岛南北关系和中朝关系的变化，从朝美两国在东北亚的战略博弈角度进行分析，朝美双方均无意在朝鲜半岛进行第二次大规模的朝鲜战争。中韩美三国在应对朝鲜的核问题上，虽然政策、手段略有差异，但是，实现朝鲜半岛的无核化，维护朝鲜半岛局势的和平稳定，是中美韩三国共同的战略利益，因此，这也就决定了朴槿惠总统访华后，朝鲜半岛局势不会失控，随着中美韩朝等半岛周边国家外交安保政策的调整，朝鲜半岛最终将走上和解与和平、合作的战略轨道。
한국총통박근혜상태후적제일차방화，피정위위“심신지려”。박근혜총통방화，불부중한전략합작화반관계득도료전면적충실화제고，재중한관계사상구유중대적전략의의，이차，중조관계화조선반도남북관계야면림착신적변화화조정。박근혜총통방화후，조선반도국세적발전，잉장취결우삼대변량，즉미조관계、조선반도남북관계화중조관계적변화，종조미량국재동북아적전략박혁각도진행분석，조미쌍방균무의재조선반도진행제이차대규모적조선전쟁。중한미삼국재응대조선적핵문제상，수연정책、수단략유차이，단시，실현조선반도적무핵화，유호조선반도국세적화평은정，시중미한삼국공동적전략이익，인차，저야취결정료박근혜총통방화후，조선반도국세불회실공，수착중미한조등반도주변국가외교안보정책적조정，조선반도최종장주상화해여화평、합작적전략궤도。
Park Geun-hye’s first visit to China is regarded as “The Journey of Faith”. This visit will improve and strengthen the strategic partnership between China and South Korea. What’s more, the China-DPRK and the South Korea-North Korea relation are facing new changes. After her visit, the situational development in the Korean Peninsula will depend on three variables, namely the changes in the US-DPRK, the South Korea-North Korea and the China-DPRK relation. Given the game theory, both DPRK and U.S. have no intention to wage a second Korean War. Although China, DPRK and America use different ways to deal with denuclearization in the Peninsula, they have a common goal-realizing denuclearization and stability there. Therefore, after Park’s visit, things will be getting better in the Peninsula. With the four countries’ adjustment of their diplomacy and security polices, the Peninsula will finally be back on a reconciliatory, peaceful and cooperative track.