CAJ | 학술논문

本文使用相关月度数据对我国煤矿安全规制效果分别采用线性VAR模型与非线性STAR模型进行了实证分析。 VAR模型研究表明，前期发生事故导致的煤矿安全规制水平增加会导致后期规制水平的提高，且会维持较长时间； STAR模型研究表明，煤矿安全规制可以划分出三个运行状态，即低规制水平状态、正常状态以及高规制水平状态，仅当处于正常状态时，煤矿安全规制是有效的。
본문사용상관월도수거대아국매광안전규제효과분별채용선성VAR모형여비선성STAR모형진행료실증분석。 VAR모형연구표명，전기발생사고도치적매광안전규제수평증가회도치후기규제수평적제고，차회유지교장시간； STAR모형연구표명，매광안전규제가이화분출삼개운행상태，즉저규제수평상태、정상상태이급고규제수평상태，부당처우정상상태시，매광안전규제시유효적。
Based on monthly time series data , this paper makes empirical research on the effect of China's coal mine safe-ty endogenous regulations with linear VAR model and nonlinear STAR model .The result of VAR model shows that the increase of coal mine safety regulations level generated by occurrence of accidents will lead to raising the level of the safety regulations ex post inevitably , and such shocks caused by the level of safety regulations will be maintained for longer periods .The result of nonlinear STAR model shows that coal mine safety regulations can be roughly divided into three operating status :lower sta-tus, middle status, and higher status.More importantly, only in middle status, coal mine safety regulations can be effective .