CAJ | 학술논문

参考作物腾发量（ET0）是由平均气温（Tm）、实际水汽压（ea）、风速（u2）和净辐射（Rn）等多个气候要素驱动的，因此，气候变化对ET0的影响是显而易见的。分析ET0和各气候要素的时空变化特征可以获得气候变化对ET0的影响。利用Mann-Kendall（MK）检验分析了淮河中上游流域1959-2009年ET0及各气候要素的变化趋势。并且利用偏相关分析和贡献分析获得ET0和主要气候要素之间的定性和定量关系。结果显示，大部分站点的年ET0表现出显著的下降趋势。在夏季，所有站点的ET0都表现出显著的下降趋势，且西北部地区尤其显著。其他3个季节显著下降的ET0趋势主要分布在淮河中上游流域的西北部地区。年及夏季的ET0在1970年以后表现出下降的趋势并且在1975年以后变的显著，其余3个季节ET0并无明显变化特征，说明夏季ET0的显著减少是年ET0显著减少的主要原因；实际水汽压与ET0之间表现出显著的负相关关系，而平均温度、净辐射和风速则表现出显著的正相关关系；无论从定性的偏相关关系还是定量的贡献分析都可看出虽然年及四季的平均气温是显著上升的，并且导致了ET0的增加，但是整个流域显著下降的风速和净辐射直接导致了年及夏季ET0的显著减少。
삼고작물등발량（ET0）시유평균기온（Tm）、실제수기압（ea）、풍속（u2）화정복사（Rn）등다개기후요소구동적，인차，기후변화대ET0적영향시현이역견적。분석ET0화각기후요소적시공변화특정가이획득기후변화대ET0적영향。이용Mann-Kendall（MK）검험분석료회하중상유류역1959-2009년ET0급각기후요소적변화추세。병차이용편상관분석화공헌분석획득ET0화주요기후요소지간적정성화정량관계。결과현시，대부분참점적년ET0표현출현저적하강추세。재하계，소유참점적ET0도표현출현저적하강추세，차서북부지구우기현저。기타3개계절현저하강적ET0추세주요분포재회하중상유류역적서북부지구。년급하계적ET0재1970년이후표현출하강적추세병차재1975년이후변적현저，기여3개계절ET0병무명현변화특정，설명하계ET0적현저감소시년ET0현저감소적주요원인；실제수기압여ET0지간표현출현저적부상관관계，이평균온도、정복사화풍속칙표현출현저적정상관관계；무론종정성적편상관관계환시정량적공헌분석도가간출수연년급사계적평균기온시현저상승적，병차도치료ET0적증가，단시정개류역현저하강적풍속화정복사직접도치료년급하계ET0적현저감소。
Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is driven by mean temperature (Tm), actual vapor pressure (ea), wind speed (u2) and net radiation (Rn). The understanding of impacts on climate changes can be obtained by analyzing on changes of ET0 trend and these meteorological variables. In this study, spatial and temporal changes of ET0 and major meteorological variables during 1959-2009 in Upper and Middle Huaihe River Basin were characterized by using Mann-Kendell (MK) test. The partial correlation analysis was used to find the correlation between the ET0 and major meteorological variables. An attribution analysis was used to calculate the contributions of input variables to ET0. The results showed that most stations for annual ET0 had significant decreasing trends at 90%confidence level. In seasonal scale, ET0 in all stations especially in northwestern part showed significant decreasing trends in summer. Significant decreasing ET0 trends were always detected in northwestern part in other three seasons. The regional annual and summer ET0 were in decreasing trends after 1970 and become significant after 1975. From the partial correlation analysis, ea played negative dominating role for ET0 while Tm, Rn and u2 had high positive influence for ET0. Although mean temperature was dominated by significant increasing trends in annual and seasonal scale and gave positive influence to ET0, decreasing annual and summer wind speed and sunshine duration led to the decreasing of annual and summer ET0.