CAJ | 학술논문

运用行为经济学中的羊群效应理论，利用动态面板数据，从地区和时期两个维度对我国住宅市场展开研究。结果表明：羊群效应在我国全国范围内的住宅市场普遍存在，但其实际程度又和所在地区的市场信息环境和所处时期的政策导向有关，具体而言，东部地区和西部地区的住宅市场羊群效应显著，而中部地区则不显著，政策环境从宽松向紧缩的转化会带来住宅市场羊群效应程度的增加，但东部地区的增加幅度要高于西部地区。相关结论对遏制住宅市场羊群效应和推动住宅市场健康发展有很强的政策启示。
운용행위경제학중적양군효응이론，이용동태면판수거，종지구화시기량개유도대아국주택시장전개연구。결과표명：양군효응재아국전국범위내적주택시장보편존재，단기실제정도우화소재지구적시장신식배경화소처시기적정책도향유관，구체이언，동부지구화서부지구적주택시장양군효응현저，이중부지구칙불현저，정책배경종관송향긴축적전화회대래주택시장양군효응정도적증가，단동부지구적증가폭도요고우서부지구。상관결론대알제주택시장양군효응화추동주택시장건강발전유흔강적정책계시。
For the traditional economic theories couldn’t explain the unusual features of transactions in the real estate market completely,the herding effect theory from the behavioral economics is introduced to study the housing market of China.Using the provincial dynamic panel data ranging from Jan.2009 to Apr.2012,the comparative measurement on the herding effect are conducted from the area and period dimensions. The results show that nationwide herding effect exist in the housing market,but the extents are related to the market information environment of the area and the policies-oriented of the period.Specifically,the herding effect in eastern and western regions is significant,while the central region is not,the conversion of the policy environment from loose to tight would bring about the increase of the extent,but the rate of the increase in eastern area is higher than that in western area. Accordingly,a series of recommendations are proposed to help curbing the herding effect and promoting the healthy development of the housing market at last.