中国房地产（学术版）
中國房地產（學術版）
중국방지산（학술판）
China Real Estate
2013年
10期
17-30
,共14页
美国%商业房地产%多家庭抵押%证券化%CMBS
美國%商業房地產%多傢庭牴押%證券化%CMBS
미국%상업방지산%다가정저압%증권화%CMBS
United States%Commercial real estate%Multifamily mortgage%Securitization%CMBS
美国商业房地产特别是多家庭住房是支撑本轮经济复苏的重要力量。商业房地产中公寓楼空置率最低且下降最快，但需求扩张力度在减缓。商业抵押恢复较为缓慢，收缩幅度呈缩小趋势，可能成为继多家庭抵押之后房地产复苏支撑力量。商业房地产复苏有相当强的联邦政府支持背景，机构和GSE支持抵押池、国民存款机构和私人养老基金的抵押对商业房地产复苏的支撑力度在逐渐加大。商业和多家庭抵押的信用风险状况改善较快。未来商业房地产价格呈上升趋势，但公寓楼价格升势可能减缓。商业房地产销售缓慢增长；多家庭住房销售呈扩张趋势，但势头逐渐减缓。多家庭租房空置率降势在下半年可能转为缓升势头；住房开工扩张势头开始减缓，明年可能平稳或发生变化。商业抵押呈波动式缓慢扩张态势；多家庭抵押持续扩张势头减缓，明年下半年可能逆转。商业房地产抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）发行扩张，但余额扩张缓慢。商业抵押、商业银行商业抵押以及CMBS的拖欠率继续下降。各级CMBS的风险利差可能平稳波动或缓慢趋高。商业房地产市场的活跃程度可能略有加强，明年商业房地产整体情况将略好于今年。
美國商業房地產特彆是多傢庭住房是支撐本輪經濟複囌的重要力量。商業房地產中公寓樓空置率最低且下降最快，但需求擴張力度在減緩。商業牴押恢複較為緩慢，收縮幅度呈縮小趨勢，可能成為繼多傢庭牴押之後房地產複囌支撐力量。商業房地產複囌有相噹彊的聯邦政府支持揹景，機構和GSE支持牴押池、國民存款機構和私人養老基金的牴押對商業房地產複囌的支撐力度在逐漸加大。商業和多傢庭牴押的信用風險狀況改善較快。未來商業房地產價格呈上升趨勢，但公寓樓價格升勢可能減緩。商業房地產銷售緩慢增長；多傢庭住房銷售呈擴張趨勢，但勢頭逐漸減緩。多傢庭租房空置率降勢在下半年可能轉為緩升勢頭；住房開工擴張勢頭開始減緩，明年可能平穩或髮生變化。商業牴押呈波動式緩慢擴張態勢；多傢庭牴押持續擴張勢頭減緩，明年下半年可能逆轉。商業房地產牴押貸款支持證券（CMBS）髮行擴張，但餘額擴張緩慢。商業牴押、商業銀行商業牴押以及CMBS的拖欠率繼續下降。各級CMBS的風險利差可能平穩波動或緩慢趨高。商業房地產市場的活躍程度可能略有加彊，明年商業房地產整體情況將略好于今年。
미국상업방지산특별시다가정주방시지탱본륜경제복소적중요역량。상업방지산중공우루공치솔최저차하강최쾌，단수구확장력도재감완。상업저압회복교위완만，수축폭도정축소추세，가능성위계다가정저압지후방지산복소지탱역량。상업방지산복소유상당강적련방정부지지배경，궤구화GSE지지저압지、국민존관궤구화사인양로기금적저압대상업방지산복소적지탱력도재축점가대。상업화다가정저압적신용풍험상황개선교쾌。미래상업방지산개격정상승추세，단공우루개격승세가능감완。상업방지산소수완만증장；다가정주방소수정확장추세，단세두축점감완。다가정조방공치솔강세재하반년가능전위완승세두；주방개공확장세두개시감완，명년가능평은혹발생변화。상업저압정파동식완만확장태세；다가정저압지속확장세두감완，명년하반년가능역전。상업방지산저압대관지지증권（CMBS）발행확장，단여액확장완만。상업저압、상업은행상업저압이급CMBS적타흠솔계속하강。각급CMBS적풍험리차가능평은파동혹완만추고。상업방지산시장적활약정도가능략유가강，명년상업방지산정체정황장략호우금년。
U.S. economic recovery is supported by the commercial real estate especially multifamily housing. The vacancy rate for the apartment buildings is at lowest level and decreases most rapidly, but the decreasing acceleration velocity is getting slower, and demand expansion is also slower. Commercial mortgage recovers slowly, and its contraction spread tends to be narrow, probably becomes the main supporting factor for the real estate recovery after the multifamily mortgages. The recovery of commercial real estate is strongly supported by the federal government, and also strongly supported by the agency and GSE-backed mortgage pool, national depository institution and private pension fund. The situation of credit risks for commercial and multifamily mortgages has improved even faster. In the coming future, the price of commercial real estate will tend to increase, but increasing price of apartments will slow down. The sales of commercial real estate will increase slowly, and so will those of multifamily housing, but the increasing of it will be slow. The decreasing vacancy rate of multifamily will turn to increase slowly in the second half of this year, and increasing of multifamily housing starts will begin to slow down, and probably be stable or happen to go down in the second half of next year. Commercial mortgage will tend to increase slowly. The increasing of multifamily mortgage will slow down, and will turn to decrease in the second half of next year. The issuance of CMBS will increase, but the outstanding of it will increase slowly. Delinquency rates of commercial mortgage and that in the commercial banks and CMBS will continue to decrease. Spread in various risky levels will be stable or tend to increase slowly. Market of commercial real estate will probably be a little bit more active, and the situation of real estate will be a little better as a whole next year than this year.
