CAJ | 학술논문

利用1966-2009年塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘16个站逐日的降水资料，运用累积频率的方法确定了塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘各站极端降水量的阈值。通过Mann—Kendall法和滑动t检验方法进行比较分析，得出极端降水指数的突变特征。结果表明：塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘极端降水量、频率、强度、年最大日降水量均呈增加趋势。极端降水量和频率的突变点分别是1998、1997年附近，极端降水频率与极端降水量呈较好的正相关。极端降水的强度和年最大日降水量的突变点分别为1985和1981、1985年。极端降水量的增加可能是由极端降水日数的增加和极端降水强度的增强共同引起的。
이용1966-2009년탑극랍마간사막남연16개참축일적강수자료，운용루적빈솔적방법학정료탑극랍마간사막남연각참겁단강수량적역치。통과Mann—Kendall법화활동t검험방법진행비교분석，득출겁단강수지수적돌변특정。결과표명：탑극랍마간사막남연겁단강수량、빈솔、강도、년최대일강수량균정증가추세。겁단강수량화빈솔적돌변점분별시1998、1997년부근，겁단강수빈솔여겁단강수량정교호적정상관。겁단강수적강도화년최대일강수량적돌변점분별위1985화1981、1985년。겁단강수량적증가가능시유겁단강수일수적증가화겁단강수강도적증강공동인기적。
Based on the daily precipitation data from 16 stations at the southern edge of the Taklimakan Desert during 1966-2009,threshold levels of extreme precipitation on each station were confirmed by using the method of cumulative frequency. According to the analysis of the comparison between Mann-Kendall and t-test, the abrupt change characteristics of extreme precipitation index were obtained. The results showed an increasing tendency of extreme precipitation,frequency, intensity, and annual maximum daily precipitation at the southern edge of the Taklimakan desert. The extreme precipitation capacity and the abrupt change point of frequency were respectively in 1998 and 1997 around,and the frequency of extreme precipitation was positively related with extreme precipitation. The abrupt change point of the intensity of extreme precipitation and annual maximum daily precipitation were 1985,1981 and 1985 respectively, and the increase of extreme precipitation may be aroused together by the increasing days and intensity of extreme precipitation.