沙漠与绿洲气象
沙漠與綠洲氣象
사막여록주기상
DESERT AND OASIS METEOROLOGY
2012年
2期
13-17
,共5页
地温%气候变化%夏季降水%乌鲁木齐
地溫%氣候變化%夏季降水%烏魯木齊
지온%기후변화%하계강수%오로목제
ground temperature%climate change%summer precipitation%Urumqi
基于乌鲁木齐1961-2008年地温和降水资料，使用一元线性回归、Mann—Kendall突变检验、相关等统计方法，分析了地温的时间变化特征及其与夏季降水的关系。结果表明：浅层地温（0cm和40cm）的季节变化与大陆气温一致，而80cm160cm，则与海温一致，320cm地温表现为准半年的变化特征。各层年均地温有较一致的年际变化，1990年至今，均处在高值期。40cm和80cm的年均地温呈下降趋势，而160cm和320cm为上升趋势。在冬季，各层地温均呈显著的升温趋势，且均在2000年后发生了由低到高的气候突变。相关分析发现，320cm前一年12月的地温与当年夏季降水相关性较好，相关系数可达0．38。进一步的分析发现，前一年秋季8月和9月，160Cm与320em地温的梯度与当年夏季降水有较好的正相关，相关系数分别为0．41和0．4，可以作为夏季降水长期预测的一个参考因子。
基于烏魯木齊1961-2008年地溫和降水資料，使用一元線性迴歸、Mann—Kendall突變檢驗、相關等統計方法，分析瞭地溫的時間變化特徵及其與夏季降水的關繫。結果錶明：淺層地溫（0cm和40cm）的季節變化與大陸氣溫一緻，而80cm160cm，則與海溫一緻，320cm地溫錶現為準半年的變化特徵。各層年均地溫有較一緻的年際變化，1990年至今，均處在高值期。40cm和80cm的年均地溫呈下降趨勢，而160cm和320cm為上升趨勢。在鼕季，各層地溫均呈顯著的升溫趨勢，且均在2000年後髮生瞭由低到高的氣候突變。相關分析髮現，320cm前一年12月的地溫與噹年夏季降水相關性較好，相關繫數可達0．38。進一步的分析髮現，前一年鞦季8月和9月，160Cm與320em地溫的梯度與噹年夏季降水有較好的正相關，相關繫數分彆為0．41和0．4，可以作為夏季降水長期預測的一箇參攷因子。
기우오로목제1961-2008년지온화강수자료，사용일원선성회귀、Mann—Kendall돌변검험、상관등통계방법，분석료지온적시간변화특정급기여하계강수적관계。결과표명：천층지온（0cm화40cm）적계절변화여대륙기온일치，이80cm160cm，칙여해온일치，320cm지온표현위준반년적변화특정。각층년균지온유교일치적년제변화，1990년지금，균처재고치기。40cm화80cm적년균지온정하강추세，이160cm화320cm위상승추세。재동계，각층지온균정현저적승온추세，차균재2000년후발생료유저도고적기후돌변。상관분석발현，320cm전일년12월적지온여당년하계강수상관성교호，상관계수가체0．38。진일보적분석발현，전일년추계8월화9월，160Cm여320em지온적제도여당년하계강수유교호적정상관，상관계수분별위0．41화0．4，가이작위하계강수장기예측적일개삼고인자。
Based on the ground temperature and precipitation data during 1961-2008 in Urumqi, the time variation characteristics of ground temperature and their relation with summer precipitation were analyzed with the statistical methods such as simple linear regression, Mann-Kendall abrupt test and correlation. The results showed that the monthly variation characteristics of shallow layer ground temperature was similar to the air temperature and that in deep layers was similar to sea temperature, but the temperature at 320cm presented the quasi half year variation characteristics. The annual mean ground temperature for each layer had consistency of annual variation and had been in high value period since 1990. The annual mean ground temperature at 40cm and 80era presented descending trend and that at 160cm and 320cm presented ascending trend. The ground temperature in winter for each layer had a significant ascending trend and climate abrupt occurred since 2000. The correlation analysis indicated that the ground temperature at 320cm for the December had a good correlation with the precipitation of the next summer , and the correlation coefficient was 0.38. It were found in the further analysis that the ground temperature gradient between 160cm and 320cm in the August and September had a good positive correlation with summer precipitation and the correlation coefficients were 0.41 and 0.40 respectively,which could be used as a long-range forecast factor for summertime precipitation.
