交通运输工程与信息学报
交通運輸工程與信息學報
교통운수공정여신식학보
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING AND INFORMATION
2012年
2期
6-11
,共6页
系统风险%特征值%影响程度%不利事件%计算方法
繫統風險%特徵值%影響程度%不利事件%計算方法
계통풍험%특정치%영향정도%불리사건%계산방법
System risk%characteristic value%impact extent%bad event%computational method
本文在风险概念的基础上，从风险的特性出发，阐述了风险的本质，并重新定义了风险的含义，对风险的内涵作了进一步延伸和扩展，指出风险是系统不利事件对作用对象的影响程度。衡量这种影响程度需要从不利事件发生的概率以及后果两个方面来刻画。由于不利事件的发生以及作用后果具有不确定性，因此刻画影响程度需要从特征量角度进行分析和计算，给出了风险特征量计算方法。本文提出的风险计算比经典风险的计算更能反映风险的本质，最后给出了系统不利事件发生概率的估计方法。
本文在風險概唸的基礎上，從風險的特性齣髮，闡述瞭風險的本質，併重新定義瞭風險的含義，對風險的內涵作瞭進一步延伸和擴展，指齣風險是繫統不利事件對作用對象的影響程度。衡量這種影響程度需要從不利事件髮生的概率以及後果兩箇方麵來刻畫。由于不利事件的髮生以及作用後果具有不確定性，因此刻畫影響程度需要從特徵量角度進行分析和計算，給齣瞭風險特徵量計算方法。本文提齣的風險計算比經典風險的計算更能反映風險的本質，最後給齣瞭繫統不利事件髮生概率的估計方法。
본문재풍험개념적기출상，종풍험적특성출발，천술료풍험적본질，병중신정의료풍험적함의，대풍험적내함작료진일보연신화확전，지출풍험시계통불리사건대작용대상적영향정도。형량저충영향정도수요종불리사건발생적개솔이급후과량개방면래각화。유우불리사건적발생이급작용후과구유불학정성，인차각화영향정도수요종특정량각도진행분석화계산，급출료풍험특정량계산방법。본문제출적풍험계산비경전풍험적계산경능반영풍험적본질，최후급출료계통불리사건발생개솔적고계방법。
Based on the concept of risk, the nature of risk was elaborated on the basis of the characteristics of risk. The meaning of risk was re-defined and its content was further extended and expanded. The definition of system risk was the impact of a bad event of a system on the objectives. The extent of impact on the objectives was described by the occurrence probability of a systematic bad event and the influence consequence. The impact extent was quantitatively determined from the characteristic quantities according to the occurrence uncertainties and its consequences of the bad event in the system. A computational method was proposed to calculate the impact extent of the system. The method proposed in this papercould reflect the nature of risk better than the classical definition of risk. Finally, a program was put forward to estimate the occurrence probability for the bad event of the system.
