CAJ | 학술논문

鸭绿江感潮河段47 km,现有洪水预报模型在大潮预报时有明显的缺陷,问题的主要原因是没有明确体现洪峰到达时间与潮汐两高两低涨落时间的叠加。为此,对高低潮的影响以3 h为一段进行时间离散化处理,确定8个时段内的潮位值,作为附表在模型中进行应用,相对定量地确定了模型L3与L4线间的预报值幅度选择,实例应用预报精度提高到允许误差的10%,预测准确。
압록강감조하단47 km,현유홍수예보모형재대조예보시유명현적결함,문제적주요원인시몰유명학체현홍봉도체시간여조석량고량저창락시간적첩가。위차,대고저조적영향이3 h위일단진행시간리산화처리,학정8개시단내적조위치,작위부표재모형중진행응용,상대정량지학정료모형L3여L4선간적예보치폭도선택,실례응용예보정도제고도윤허오차적10%,예측준학。
There is 47km - long tidal reach in the Yalu River. The present flood forecasting model is obviously imperfect in forecasting big tide. The main reason of the problem is that it does not clearly reflect the superposition of the reaching time of flood peak and the time of two high and two low of tidal fluctuation. To revise it, the effect of high and low tides is processed discretely at a 3 h interval. The tide levels in eight intervals are obtained and ap- plied in the model, by which the amplitude between lines L3 and L4 is quantitatively determined. The application results show that prediction accuracy is improved to 10% of the allowable error.