CAJ | 학술논문

我国是钢铁生产大国、贸易大国，同时面临着高投入、高排放等诸多问题。“十一五”期间，国家采取了调整出口退税率等措施来限制“两高一资”产品的出口。回顾我国钢铁行业1994年以来出口退税率的调整变化，运用计量经济学模型，采用月度数据分析2004年-2010年出口退税率的调整对我国钢铁行业出口的影响。研究显示，出口退税率的调整对我国钢铁出口量存在微小的长期正向影响，短期作用效果不显著；国外需求因素对钢铁出口的刺激作用最突出，无论在长期或短期影响都非常显著；汇率、价格因素对钢铁出口的刺激作用其次，只存在长期均衡关系。
아국시강철생산대국、무역대국，동시면림착고투입、고배방등제다문제。“십일오”기간，국가채취료조정출구퇴세솔등조시래한제“량고일자”산품적출구。회고아국강철행업1994년이래출구퇴세솔적조정변화，운용계량경제학모형，채용월도수거분석2004년-2010년출구퇴세솔적조정대아국강철행업출구적영향。연구현시，출구퇴세솔적조정대아국강철출구량존재미소적장기정향영향，단기작용효과불현저；국외수구인소대강철출구적자격작용최돌출，무론재장기혹단기영향도비상현저；회솔、개격인소대강철출구적자격작용기차，지존재장기균형관계。
China is a big steel manufacturer and trading country in the world, and at the same time, is confronted with lots of problems, like high investment, high emission and so on. During Eleventh Five-Year period, the export rebate policy was used by the government, to restrict the export of heavy energy consumption, heavy pollution and resource-related products. Based on reviewing the adjustment process of the export rebate rate on China＇s steel industry since 1994, this study evaluates the effect of adjusting export rebate rate on China＇s steel export, by using an econometrics model and monthly data from 2004 to 2010. The results show that there is a long-term and slightly positive relation between the export rebate rate and steel export in China, but the short-term effect of it is statistically insignificant; and the foreign demand factor, which is statistically significant in both long-term and short-term effect, is the biggest positive stimulus on steel export; and the ex- change rate factor and price factor, which only have long-term effect, are the second.