CAJ | 학술논문

针对安徽省天长和宿松气象站建站至2010年逐年平均风速资料，分别利用直接检验方法和3种间接检验方法：标准正态均一检验（the standard normalhomogeneity test，SNHT）、惩罚最大t检验（the penalized maximal t test，PMTT）和惩罚最大F检验（the penalized maximal Ftest，PMFT），对这两个气象站逐年平均风速序列进行了均一性检验，并对不同检验方法的效果进行了对比分析。研究结果表明：1）站址迁移、观测场环境变化、仪器变更以及测风手段变化等均能对年平均风速序列的均一性产生影响，其中测风手段变化的影响最为明显。2）由于以气象台站观测记录为依据，直接检验得到的结果最为真实可信；此外SNHT、PMTT和PMFF方法对年平均风速序列的间断点均有一定的检验能力，但遗漏间断点的情况也比较明显。因而在年平均风速序列的均一性检验中，若气象台站观测记录相对较齐全，首先考虑采用直接检验，然后再考虑补充采用其他间接检验手段。
침대안휘성천장화숙송기상참건참지2010년축년평균풍속자료，분별이용직접검험방법화3충간접검험방법：표준정태균일검험（the standard normalhomogeneity test，SNHT）、징벌최대t검험（the penalized maximal t test，PMTT）화징벌최대F검험（the penalized maximal Ftest，PMFT），대저량개기상참축년평균풍속서렬진행료균일성검험，병대불동검험방법적효과진행료대비분석。연구결과표명：1）참지천이、관측장배경변화、의기변경이급측풍수단변화등균능대년평균풍속서렬적균일성산생영향，기중측풍수단변화적영향최위명현。2）유우이기상태참관측기록위의거，직접검험득도적결과최위진실가신；차외SNHT、PMTT화PMFF방법대년평균풍속서렬적간단점균유일정적검험능력，단유루간단점적정황야비교명현。인이재년평균풍속서렬적균일성검험중，약기상태참관측기록상대교제전，수선고필채용직접검험，연후재고필보충채용기타간접검험수단。
By using the direct homogeneity test （based on the observation data and the t test） and 3 in- direct homogeneity methods （including SNHT, PMTT and PMFT ）, time series of annual mean wind speed at 2 meteorological stations,Tianchang and Susong,from 1957 to 2010,have been tested respec-tively. The results show that station relocation, observational environment change, instruments updating and measurements variation can all influence the homogeneity of the mean wind speed, and the impact of measurements updating is the most prominent factor. Because based on observation data from meteor-ological stations, the results of direct test is more reliable. However, SNHT, PMTT and PMFT are effec-tive in identifying the change-points, but the missing ratio is also of a high degree. Thus, to test mean wind speed homogeneity, if the observation data from meteorological stations are correct and intact, the direct test should be used firstly and then other methods can be used additionally.