CAJ | 학술논문

台湾西南部地区因气候、地形、环境特殊，使降雨在时间与空间上分布不均，易发生干旱，本研究利用标准化降雨指标衡量降雨丰缺情况，评估西南部地区干旱时空变动特性。以132个气象站为分析对象，以水文数据为主，干旱历史事件为辅进行整理，确认干旱的起始、延时状况及范围，并建立各项水文参数的干旱等级界限值，进而探讨该指标干旱监测能力。本文以2002年及2003年干旱年为例进行研究，结果显示：标准化降雨指标可有效且准确地显示一场干旱的起始，具显著的干旱累积效应。利用累积4个月的标准化降雨作为评估指标，所预测出的干旱空间分布与历史干旱事件形态较为一致，因此以累积4个月的标准化降雨对西南部地区干旱事件进行描述是适当且合理的。
태만서남부지구인기후、지형、배경특수，사강우재시간여공간상분포불균，역발생간한，본연구이용표준화강우지표형량강우봉결정황，평고서남부지구간한시공변동특성。이132개기상참위분석대상，이수문수거위주，간한역사사건위보진행정리，학인간한적기시、연시상황급범위，병건립각항수문삼수적간한등급계한치，진이탐토해지표간한감측능력。본문이2002년급2003년간한년위례진행연구，결과현시：표준화강우지표가유효차준학지현시일장간한적기시，구현저적간한루적효응。이용루적4개월적표준화강우작위평고지표，소예측출적간한공간분포여역사간한사건형태교위일치，인차이루적4개월적표준화강우대서남부지구간한사건진행묘술시괄당차합리적。
The special climate , terrain and environment circumstances is the leading causes to the uneven distribution of rainfall in time and space that easily result in the drought in the south -west Taiwan .The essay evaluated the tem-poral and spatial fluctuations of droughts in south -west Taiwan through the measurement of the rainfall abundance sta-tus by using the standardized precipitation index ( SPI) .Taking the hydrological data of 132 weather stations for analy-sis, supplemented by the drought historical events , it is identified the start , delay status and scope of the droughts , and established the drought grade severity limit to the various hydrological parameters so as to further discuss the drought monitoring capacity of the SPI .The study was conducted based on the data of 2002 and 2003 drought years . The result shows that the standardized precipitation index ( SPI ) can effectively and exactly illustrate the start of the drought , with obviously drought accumulative effect .By using the accumulated four months SPI , the evaluation result shows that the predicated drought space distribution is consistent to the historical drought events .Therefore , it is suit-able and reasonable to illustrate the drought events in the south -west Taiwan by the accumulative four months SPI .