CAJ | 학술논문

利用1961-2009年江苏66站逐日降水资料和NCEP／NCAR逐日再分析资料，采用EOF分解、小波分析、合成分析等方法，探讨近50a江苏省梅雨量异常的时空变化和环流特征。结果表明，江苏梅雨量存在全区一致型、南北（以32°N为界）反位相型、江淮之间与淮北及沿江苏南反位相型三种主要空间型；江苏梅雨量异常均存在显著年际变化和年代际变化特征，并存在准2a、准4a和准6a的振荡周期；近50a江苏梅雨量呈一致的增长趋势，且淮北地区和苏南地区的正趋势明显，通过置信水平为95％的检验。此外，江苏丰梅年份，南亚高压中心偏东，强度偏弱，面积偏小；副热带高压西伸脊点偏东，588dagmp线北界偏北，面积偏大；东北冷涡活动频繁，引导干冷空气南下，与强盛的西南暖湿气流相互作用，冷暖气流在江苏交绥，梅雨量偏多。枯梅年环流形势则与之相反。
이용1961-2009년강소66참축일강수자료화NCEP／NCAR축일재분석자료，채용EOF분해、소파분석、합성분석등방법，탐토근50a강소성매우량이상적시공변화화배류특정。결과표명，강소매우량존재전구일치형、남북（이32°N위계）반위상형、강회지간여회북급연강소남반위상형삼충주요공간형；강소매우량이상균존재현저년제변화화년대제변화특정，병존재준2a、준4a화준6a적진탕주기；근50a강소매우량정일치적증장추세，차회북지구화소남지구적정추세명현，통과치신수평위95％적검험。차외，강소봉매년빈，남아고압중심편동，강도편약，면적편소；부열대고압서신척점편동，588dagmp선북계편북，면적편대；동북랭와활동빈번，인도간랭공기남하，여강성적서남난습기류상호작용，랭난기류재강소교수，매우량편다。고매년배류형세칙여지상반。
Based on daily precipitation data from 66 stations in Jiangshu province from 1961 to 2009 and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF）, Morlet wavelet analysis and composite analysis methods were used to investigate temporal and spatial change and circulation features of the Meiyu precipitation anomaly in Jiangsu in the latest 50 years. The results show that the Meiyu precipita- tion in Jiangsu presented 3 main spatial patterns, i.e., the consistent pattern in the whole region, the spatial reverse pattern between the north and south （bordered by 32°N） and the spatial reverse pattern among the Yangtze-Huaihe River region and other regions in Jiangsu. Anoma- lous Meiyu precipitation in Jiangsu has the significant inter-annual and decadal change, presenting quasi-two-year, quasi-four-year and quasi-six-year periodic oscillation. Meiyu precipitation in Jiangsu in the latest 50 years presents a trend of increase and presents obviously positive trend in Huaibei and the southern part of Jiangshu province with over 95% confidence level. In addition, South Asia high has an east- ward central zone, weaker intensity and smaller area; but subtropical high moves westward and the ridge point is easterly, 588-dagpm isoline is northward and area is bigger; the dry and cold air led by the Northeast China cold vortex moves southward and interacts with strong south- west warm and wet airflow in Jiangsu resulting in precipitation more than that in the same period of normal years in all High Meiyu years. The circulation patterns in all Low Meiyu years are contrary to the patterns mentioned above.