CAJ | 학술논문

利用1956年1月1日至2008年12月31日环渤海15个地面测站观测资料,建立降水天气过程的时间序列,利用灰色预测模型法,对各站降水天气进行预测研究。为了提高预报准确率,对灰色预测模型进行了改进。通过不同长度时间序列建立灰色预测模型,从而排除时间序列长度对模型的影响;基于光滑比对灰色预测模型的影响,为提高时间序列光滑比,对时间序列进行函数变换;优化灰色预测模型。利用1956～2008年观测资料进行检验,实证分析结果表明：改进后的灰色预测模型降水过程预测准确率明显高于灰色预测模型,达到65%,对中长期降水预报具有一定的参考价值。
이용1956년1월1일지2008년12월31일배발해15개지면측참관측자료,건립강수천기과정적시간서렬,이용회색예측모형법,대각참강수천기진행예측연구。위료제고예보준학솔,대회색예측모형진행료개진。통과불동장도시간서렬건립회색예측모형,종이배제시간서렬장도대모형적영향;기우광활비대회색예측모형적영향,위제고시간서렬광활비,대시간서렬진행함수변환;우화회색예측모형。이용1956～2008년관측자료진행검험,실증분석결과표명：개진후적회색예측모형강수과정예측준학솔명현고우회색예측모형,체도65%,대중장기강수예보구유일정적삼고개치。
By using the data of 15 meteorological stations around Bohai Sea from January 1, 1956 to December 31, 2008, a time series of rainfall weather process was obtained, and then the grey prediction model was used to forecast rainfall weather. In order to improve the forecast accuracy, the grey prediction model was advanced in this paper. The grey prediction model was established through different length of time series to exclude the influence of length of time series on the model. Due to the impact of smooth ratio, functional transformation of the time series is done to improve its smooth ratio. In addition, the grey prediction model is also optimized. The improved model is inspected by the observation data from 1956 to 2008. Results indicate that the forecast accuracy of the improved model could reach to 65%, which implied that the improved model is an important reference to the forecast of medium and long -term precipitation forecast.