CAJ | 학술논문

利用宁夏主要气象台站1961～2010年逐侯降水量序列资料,研究了表征降水量时间分配特征的降水集中度（PCD）、集中期（PCP）与表征旱涝程度的Z指数之间的关系,结果表明：宁夏夏季各地降水PCP基本出现在7月4～5候,PCD空间分布特征明显,自北向南逐渐减小,北部一年中最大降水出现的时间变率大,且出现极端降水的可能性比中南部要大;近50 a全区夏季PCD与PCP整体呈微弱的下降趋势,但2000年代增大,PCP变幅加大;夏季PCP和PCD显著正相关,PCP出现得越晚,PCD集中度越高;宁夏夏季干旱Z指数在1960年代到1980年代中期变幅较大,易出现大旱大涝,1980年代中期以后变幅明显减小,尤其是1980年代中后期以及1997年以后的绝大部分年份为正常;夏季降水PCD对干旱有显著的影响,降水PCD高,雨涝发生的概率越大,降水集中度低,干旱发生的概率大;主汛期7～8月副高的位置对宁夏旱涝有一定影响,偏旱年份副高易偏南,偏涝年份易偏北。
이용저하주요기상태참1961～2010년축후강수량서렬자료,연구료표정강수량시간분배특정적강수집중도（PCD）、집중기（PCP）여표정한로정도적Z지수지간적관계,결과표명：저하하계각지강수PCP기본출현재7월4～5후,PCD공간분포특정명현,자북향남축점감소,북부일년중최대강수출현적시간변솔대,차출현겁단강수적가능성비중남부요대;근50 a전구하계PCD여PCP정체정미약적하강추세,단2000년대증대,PCP변폭가대;하계PCP화PCD현저정상관,PCP출현득월만,PCD집중도월고;저하하계간한Z지수재1960년대도1980년대중기변폭교대,역출현대한대로,1980년대중기이후변폭명현감소,우기시1980년대중후기이급1997년이후적절대부분년빈위정상;하계강수PCD대간한유현저적영향,강수PCD고,우로발생적개솔월대,강수집중도저,간한발생적개솔대;주신기7～8월부고적위치대저하한로유일정영향,편한년빈부고역편남,편로년빈역편북。
Based on the data of pentad precipitation from the main stations in Ningxia during 1961 -2010, the relations between summer precipitation concentration degree （PCD） , precipitation concentration period （PCP） and Zindex are studied. The results show that PCP appeared in 4 - 5 pentad of July, and the PCD was decreased from north to south area in Ningxia. The temporal variability of maximum precipitation in the north region of Ningxia was more bigger, and extreme precipitation occurred more in the north area than that in the central and southern area of Ningxia. The PCD and PCP presented slight decreasing trend from 1961 to 2010 on the whole, but PCD increased and the variability of PCP increased in recent 10 years. There was a good positive correlation between the PCD and PCP, when PCP appeared later, the PCD was more concentrative. The Z- index from the 1960s to 1980s changed more in Ningxia, and its variability decreased obviously since the middle of the 1980s. There was a close relation between the summer drought and PCD, when precipitation was more concentrative, the possibility of floods was more, and when the PCD was small, drought occurred easily. The position of west Pacific subtropical high had some influence on flood or drought from July to August in Ningxia, the subtropical high was near to north in drought years and near to south in flood years.