北华大学学报：社会科学版
北華大學學報：社會科學版
북화대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Beihua University(Social Sciences)
2012年
3期
33-39
,共7页
银行稳定性%预算软约束%制度因素
銀行穩定性%預算軟約束%製度因素
은행은정성%예산연약속%제도인소
Banking stability%Soft budget constraint%Institutional factors
全球金融危机的爆发使得各国对于银行稳定性及其对实体经济的影响日益重视。实证研究表明,宏观经济变量与银行稳定存在长期协整关系,实体经济指标与银行稳定正相关;资产价格指标与银行稳定负相关。房屋销售价格增长率、证券市场市盈率、财政政策和货币政策是银行稳定指数的Granger原因。政府救助和提高直接融资率会增加银行体系的稳定性,而预算软约束则会增加银行信贷风险。
全毬金融危機的爆髮使得各國對于銀行穩定性及其對實體經濟的影響日益重視。實證研究錶明,宏觀經濟變量與銀行穩定存在長期協整關繫,實體經濟指標與銀行穩定正相關;資產價格指標與銀行穩定負相關。房屋銷售價格增長率、證券市場市盈率、財政政策和貨幣政策是銀行穩定指數的Granger原因。政府救助和提高直接融資率會增加銀行體繫的穩定性,而預算軟約束則會增加銀行信貸風險。
전구금융위궤적폭발사득각국대우은행은정성급기대실체경제적영향일익중시。실증연구표명,굉관경제변량여은행은정존재장기협정관계,실체경제지표여은행은정정상관;자산개격지표여은행은정부상관。방옥소수개격증장솔、증권시장시영솔、재정정책화화폐정책시은행은정지수적Granger원인。정부구조화제고직접융자솔회증가은행체계적은정성,이예산연약속칙회증가은행신대풍험。
After the global financial crisis in 2007, many countries pay more attention to the banking stability as well as its impact on the real economy. The empirical research results of this paper demonstrate that macro- economic variables and banking stability are long-run co-integrated, real economic indexes are positively corre- lated with banking stability;asset price indexes are negatively correlated with banking stability. The growth rate of house sale price, P/E ratio, fiscal policy and monetary policy are the Granger causation of banking stability. Government rescue and enhancing the ratio of direct finance improve the stability of bank system, but soft budget constraint increase the risk of banks.
