CAJ | 학술논문

本文应用污染损害综合指数法,分析了四川省渠县近5年来的大气变化及其危害程度,并运用GM（1,1）模型对渠县未来8年的大气状况作预测。结果表明,渠县大气环境主要污染物为可吸入微粒,其浓度变化呈逐年下降趋势,从2008年开始TSP有明显下降,SO2与NO2含量较低并且比较稳定。通过GM（1,1）模型对渠县空气质量进行预测得知,SO2、NO2逐渐下降,TSP的浓度将大幅度下降,在未来的8年里渠县的空气环境质量得到大幅度的提高。
본문응용오염손해종합지수법,분석료사천성거현근5년래적대기변화급기위해정도,병운용GM（1,1）모형대거현미래8년적대기상황작예측。결과표명,거현대기배경주요오염물위가흡입미립,기농도변화정축년하강추세,종2008년개시TSP유명현하강,SO2여NO2함량교저병차비교은정。통과GM（1,1）모형대거현공기질량진행예측득지,SO2、NO2축점하강,TSP적농도장대폭도하강,재미래적8년리거현적공기배경질량득도대폭도적제고。
In this paper, comprehensive pollution harm index was applied to analyze the atmospheric change and its harmful level in Quxian County of Sichuan Province in the last five years. Furthermore the GM （ 1, 1 ） model was used to predict the atmospheric situation of Quxian in the next 8 years. The results showed that the primary pollutant in Quxian was respirable particles, of which the concentration decreased year by year; since 2008 TSP has significantly decreased, meanwhile the contents of SO2 and NO2 were stable in low levels. According to the prediction of air quality in Quxian using GM （ 1, 1 ） model, it was known that the contents of SO2 and NO2 would reduce gradually and TSP concentration would drop a lot, Therefore the environmental quality of air in Quxian would be improved greatly in the next 8 years.