CAJ | 학술논문

利用1951—2010年吉林省气温资料和500 hpa环流资料,根据异常高、低温月将预测月前月的环流分型,并利用距平符号合成的方法提取有预报意义的关键区,进而对非异常月的环流型和气温进行了试报,结果表明：利用环流承继关系做月气温预报是可行的,尤其采用距平符号合成寻求有意义的环流关键区,使得预测更为客观化。由于物理意义明确,因而具有较强的预报能力,比单纯的统计预测要可靠。
이용1951—2010년길림성기온자료화500 hpa배류자료,근거이상고、저온월장예측월전월적배류분형,병이용거평부호합성적방법제취유예보의의적관건구,진이대비이상월적배류형화기온진행료시보,결과표명：이용배류승계관계주월기온예보시가행적,우기채용거평부호합성심구유의의적배류관건구,사득예측경위객관화。유우물리의의명학,인이구유교강적예보능력,비단순적통계예측요가고。
By using 1951-2010 air temperature data of Jilin Province and 500 hpa circulation material,the circular types of previous month of predicatable month were divided with unusually high and low temprature month.The key regions of having predicatable significance were acquired by using composition of departure symbol.Then testing predictions of the normal month were made.The results showed that using circulation on temperature forecast inherits relationship was feasible,especially sought for meaningful synthetic surface by the composition of departure symbol,made forecast more objective.Since the physical meaning clear,thus has strong forecasting ability than purely statistical forecast to reliable.