CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过大量实际资料分析认为，现代全球变暖与海平面上升，源于200多年前小冰期冷峰出现后的气候返暖、海平面回升过程演变的结果。近30年的世界海平面上升的速率，有着上世纪80、90年代和本世纪前10年世界平均气温每10年以0．2F°（0．11℃）为梯度的连续抬升为背景。在此以CO。含量为气候指标，划分出了公元200年以来的八个暖段（暖期）。若按冷暖极值距200年或250年计算，则由目前正在发展的暖期，将在公元2050年或2100年前后结束，而后开始降温。作者依据最近30年同一时段国内外验潮资料计算获得的绝对海平面升降速率为＋1．52±0．27mm／a及相对海平面升降速率为＋1．39±0．26mm/a。按照2010年坎昆气候大会决议要求，在对前人有关研究成果进行考量时，对将来的2050和2100年世界海平面预测及我国地面沉降较明显的沿海城市如天津、上海、厦门、海口等相对海平面升降值，进行了测算与评估。
본문통과대량실제자료분석인위，현대전구변난여해평면상승，원우200다년전소빙기랭봉출현후적기후반난、해평면회승과정연변적결과。근30년적세계해평면상승적속솔，유착상세기80、90년대화본세기전10년세계평균기온매10년이0．2F°（0．11℃）위제도적련속태승위배경。재차이CO。함량위기후지표，화분출료공원200년이래적팔개난단（난기）。약안랭난겁치거200년혹250년계산，칙유목전정재발전적난기，장재공원2050년혹2100년전후결속，이후개시강온。작자의거최근30년동일시단국내외험조자료계산획득적절대해평면승강속솔위＋1．52±0．27mm／a급상대해평면승강속솔위＋1．39±0．26mm/a。안조2010년감곤기후대회결의요구，재대전인유관연구성과진행고량시，대장래적2050화2100년세계해평면예측급아국지면침강교명현적연해성시여천진、상해、하문、해구등상대해평면승강치，진행료측산여평고。
Based on a large number of actual data, the author believe that the modem global warming and sea level rise resulted from climate warming after the cold front of the Little Ice Age about 200 years ago and the developmnet of the sea level rise phase. In the past 30 years, the rate of sea level rise was increasing, which is under the background of the average temperature uplift 0.2F°（0.11℃）every 10 years in succession from the 1980s to the past 10 years this century. On the basis of the absolute and relative sea-level rise rate that was calculated from the tidal data during the same period at home and abroad in the last 30 years, in accordance with the resolutions of the 2010 climate conference in Cancun, at the same time, considering the previous prediction and research, the world＇s sea levels and the relative sea level in Tianjin, Shanghai, Dongying, Xiamen, Haikou and other coastal cities that have severe land subsidence in 2050 and 2100 are calculated and evaluated.