宁夏工程技术
寧夏工程技術
저하공정기술
NINGXIA ENGINGEERING TECHNOLOGY
2012年
2期
113-117,123
,共6页
宁夏%夏季日数%变化特征%气候变暖%响应
寧夏%夏季日數%變化特徵%氣候變暖%響應
저하%하계일수%변화특정%기후변난%향응
Ningxia%summer days%change characteristic%climate warming%response
采用1961—2010年宁夏逐日最高气温资料,分区域分析了夏季日数相关要素的变化特征及其对气候变暖的响应.结果表明,各区域夏季日数均有上升趋势,于1997—1998年发生突变,夏季日数上升速率为2.6~3.9 d/10 a,其中引黄灌区最大;日最高气温〉25℃的起始和终止日期分别有提前和推迟趋势,起始日期提前增加了春季发生霜冻的风险性,引黄灌区和南部山区分别有以起始日期显著提前和终止日期明显推迟为特征的延长趋势;中北部地区夏季日数的极端性趋势显著.各要素对气候变暖有不同程度的响应,响应趋势及显著性与各要素变化趋势基本一致;年平均气温每增加1℃,夏季日数增加9.5~11.1 d,南部山区增加最多;日最高气温〉25℃的终止日期对气候变暖最为敏感,其他要素突变时间均滞后于年平均气温的突变时间.
採用1961—2010年寧夏逐日最高氣溫資料,分區域分析瞭夏季日數相關要素的變化特徵及其對氣候變暖的響應.結果錶明,各區域夏季日數均有上升趨勢,于1997—1998年髮生突變,夏季日數上升速率為2.6~3.9 d/10 a,其中引黃灌區最大;日最高氣溫〉25℃的起始和終止日期分彆有提前和推遲趨勢,起始日期提前增加瞭春季髮生霜凍的風險性,引黃灌區和南部山區分彆有以起始日期顯著提前和終止日期明顯推遲為特徵的延長趨勢;中北部地區夏季日數的極耑性趨勢顯著.各要素對氣候變暖有不同程度的響應,響應趨勢及顯著性與各要素變化趨勢基本一緻;年平均氣溫每增加1℃,夏季日數增加9.5~11.1 d,南部山區增加最多;日最高氣溫〉25℃的終止日期對氣候變暖最為敏感,其他要素突變時間均滯後于年平均氣溫的突變時間.
채용1961—2010년저하축일최고기온자료,분구역분석료하계일수상관요소적변화특정급기대기후변난적향응.결과표명,각구역하계일수균유상승추세,우1997—1998년발생돌변,하계일수상승속솔위2.6~3.9 d/10 a,기중인황관구최대;일최고기온〉25℃적기시화종지일기분별유제전화추지추세,기시일기제전증가료춘계발생상동적풍험성,인황관구화남부산구분별유이기시일기현저제전화종지일기명현추지위특정적연장추세;중북부지구하계일수적겁단성추세현저.각요소대기후변난유불동정도적향응,향응추세급현저성여각요소변화추세기본일치;년평균기온매증가1℃,하계일수증가9.5~11.1 d,남부산구증가최다;일최고기온〉25℃적종지일기대기후변난최위민감,기타요소돌변시간균체후우년평균기온적돌변시간.
Using the daily data of extreme high-temperature from 1961 to 2010 in Ningxia,the changes of characteristic and responses of relating factors of summer day number to climate warming were analyzed regionally.The results indicate that the summer day number has ascending trend and have a break around form 1997 to 1998.The ascending coefficients are 2.6 to 3.9 days per 10 years,and the largest is in Yellow River irrigation region.The beginning and ending dates of extreme high-temperature,more than 25 ℃,advances and delays respectively.And then,the earlier of the beginning dates,the heavier of frost risk in spring.The prolong trend for characteristic of beginning date moving up and ending date delay remarkably makes the summer day number prolong in Yellow River irrigation region and southern region in Ningxia respectively.The extremism trend in north-central is more noticeable.Each factor responds to climate warming differently,and the response trend and significance are accord with the change trend of the factor on the whole.The summer days will ascends 9.5 to 11.1 days as annual average temperature increase 1 ℃,which in southern region is remarkable.The ending time of extreme high-temperature which is above 25 ℃ is the most sensitive to climate warming,and other factor’s break point are later than that of the average temperature.
