CAJ | 학술논문

全球变暖是目前最为重大全球变化事件,全球变暖的未来趋势是关注的焦点之一,过去全球变化的研究,为预测未来气候变化提供了背景资料.采用中国全新世百年分辨率气温集成序列,利用傅立叶分析技术进行周期分析,并结合全新世环境记录的研究结果,以6000a、4000a、3000a、2400a、1200a、1091a、1000a、923a和706a做为自然变率的谐波准周期,对集成序列进行拟合,结果表明：拟合序列与集成气温变化趋势基本一致,能较好的拟合全新世百年尺度冷暖变率,对集成序列的方差解释量达到81%.并利用周期外延的方法预测了未来百年尺度的气温自然变率,未来500年气温将呈现下降趋势,在2300～2400AD气温较现代低1℃左右.太阳因素与全新世气候的周期性变化关系显著,但太阳驱动气候变化的模式复杂,在千-百年尺度利用太阳活动来预测未来气温具有不确定性.
전구변난시목전최위중대전구변화사건,전구변난적미래추세시관주적초점지일,과거전구변화적연구,위예측미래기후변화제공료배경자료.채용중국전신세백년분변솔기온집성서렬,이용부립협분석기술진행주기분석,병결합전신세배경기록적연구결과,이6000a、4000a、3000a、2400a、1200a、1091a、1000a、923a화706a주위자연변솔적해파준주기,대집성서렬진행의합,결과표명：의합서렬여집성기온변화추세기본일치,능교호적의합전신세백년척도랭난변솔,대집성서렬적방차해석량체도81%.병이용주기외연적방법예측료미래백년척도적기온자연변솔,미래500년기온장정현하강추세,재2300～2400AD기온교현대저1℃좌우.태양인소여전신세기후적주기성변화관계현저,단태양구동기후변화적모식복잡,재천-백년척도이용태양활동래예측미래기온구유불학정성.
Global warming is the most important global change events at present, the Global warming trend in future is one of attention focus. PAGES（Past Global Changes） Provides background information for climate change in future, applying temperature integrated sequence of Holocene centuries-resolution in China,12000a,6000a,4000a,3000a,1200a,1091a,1000a,923a and 706a as harmonic quasi-periodic of natural variability, fitting the integrated sequence and the result show that. both fitting and integrating series variation trends are almost show no difference and well in fitting well-being＇s variation of Holocene centennial-scale,the explained variance of integrated sequence reaching to 81%. Adopting the way of cycle extension to predict natural variability of future centennial-scale temperature, there will show decline trend in the future 500a,temperatue in 2300AD less about 1℃ than nowadays. The cycle variation relationship between solar factor and Holocene temperature are very significant, but climate variation mode of driving by solar is complex, there exists uncentainties to predict future temperature through solar-active in thousand years and centennial scale.