CAJ | 학술논문

气候变化对全球的自然生态系统以及社会经济体系具有深远的影响,是当今各国政府和科学界乃至普通民众广泛关注的热点问题.文章利用吐鲁番市1953～2009年的气温、降水量、日照时数、蒸发量等气象资料,采用线性拟合法、偏值方法、阶段分析法,对气候变化进行研究分析.结果表明：近57 a来吐鲁番市气温在波动中呈现出上升趋势,上升幅度为0.35℃.（10 a）-1,尤其80年代后这种上升趋势更明显;降水量在波动中呈现出稍微降低趋势,下降幅度为0.56 mm.（10 a）-1;日照时数和蒸发量也呈现出不同程度的降低趋势,降低幅度分别为55.5 h.（10 a）-1,234 mm.（10 a）-1,下降幅度都比较急剧.
기후변화대전구적자연생태계통이급사회경제체계구유심원적영향,시당금각국정부화과학계내지보통민음엄범관주적열점문제.문장이용토로번시1953～2009년적기온、강수량、일조시수、증발량등기상자료,채용선성의합법、편치방법、계단분석법,대기후변화진행연구분석.결과표명：근57 a래토로번시기온재파동중정현출상승추세,상승폭도위0.35℃.（10 a）-1,우기80년대후저충상승추세경명현;강수량재파동중정현출초미강저추세,하강폭도위0.56 mm.（10 a）-1;일조시수화증발량야정현출불동정도적강저추세,강저폭도분별위55.5 h.（10 a）-1,234 mm.（10 a）-1,하강폭도도비교급극.
The global climate change on natural ecosystems and socio-economic system has far-reaching implications.It is the hot issue of widespread concern of scientific community,governments and ordinary people as well.In this paper,by using temperature,precipitation,sunshine number,evaporation and other meteorological data in Turpan City during 1953~2009,using the linear fitting,partial value method,phase analysis,we research and analyze climate change.The results show fluctuations in Turpan City,in recent 57 years,showing a temperature rise,rise to 0.35 ℃·（10 a）-1,in particular,the upward trend after 1980s is more obvious;precipitation fluctuations in the trend show a small decrease,dropping by 0.56 mm·（10 a）-1;sunshine hours and evaporation have also shown a decreasing trend in varying degrees,lower rates are 55.5 h·（10 a）-1,234 mm·（10 a）-1.